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In contrast to this group, some developing countries are projected to triple their populations over the next half-century. For example, Ethiopia's current population of 59 million is due to reach 213 million in 2050, while Pakistan's 147 million are likely to become 357 million, surpassing the projected population of the United States before 2050. Nigeria, meanwhile, is projected to go from 122 million today to 339 million – more people than in all of Africa in 1950. The largest absolute increase is anticipated for India, which is likely to add nearly 600 million by 2050, eclipsing China as the most populous country. Scores of smaller countries also face potentially overwhelming population growth.

Some developing countries have followed China, dramatically lowering birth rates and moving toward population stability. But others are showing signs of demographic fatigue, a result of the effort to deal with the multiple stresses caused by high fertility. Governments struggling with the challenges of educating numbers of children, creating jobs for swelling ranks of young job seekers, and dealing with the environmental effects of population growth are stretched to the limit. When a major new threat arises – such as AIDS or aquifer depletion – they often cannot cope.

As recent experience with AIDS in Africa shows, some countries with rapid population growth are simply overwhelmed. While industrial countries have held HIV infection rates among their adult populations under 1 percent, a 1998 World Health Organization survey reports that in Zimbabwe a staggering 26 percent of the adult population is HIV – positive. In Botswana the figure is 25 percent, and in Namibia, Swaziland, and Zambia, it is 18-20 percent. Barring a miracle, these societies will lose one fifth or more of their adult population within the decade from AIDS alone. These potential losses, whish could bring population growth to a halt or even into decline, are the most demographically catastrophic human losses from an infectious disease since European smallpox decimated Indian population in the New World in the 16^th century or since bubonic plague from Central Asia devastated Europe in the 14^th century. These high AIDS mortality trends in Africa are more reminiscent of the Dark Ages than the bright new millennium so many had hoped for.

Although the nation that population growth can continue unaltered in the next century is now questioned by many, faith in the feasibility – and desirability – of unending economic growth remains strong. During this century, the global economy has expanded from an annual output of $2.3 trillion in 1900 to $39 trillion in 1998, a 17 – fold increase. Income per person, meanwhile, climbed from $1,500 to $6, 600, a rise of just over fourfold, with most of this rise concentrated in the second half of the century.

The growth in economic output in just three years – from 1995 to 1998 – exceeded that during the 10,000 years from the beginning of agriculture until 1900. And growth of the global economy in 1997 alone easily exceeded that during the 17^th century. Growth has become the goal of every society, North and South. Indeed, it has become a king of religion or ideology that drives societies. From the posh penthouses of Manhattan to the thatched huts of Bangladesh, human beings strive to raise their standard of living by expanding their wealth. Aspiring politicians promise faster growth, and the performance of corporate CEOs is judged by how quickly their firms expand.

Economic growth has allowed billions of people to live healthier, more productive lives and to enjoy a host of comforts that were unimaginable in 1900. It has helped raise life expectancy, perhaps the sentinel indicator of human well-being, from 35 years in 1900 to 66 years today. Children born in 1999 can expect to live almost twice as long as their great-grandparents who were born around the turn of the century.

While one – fifth of humanity lives better than the kings of yore, another one-fifth still lives on the very margin of existence, struggling just to survive. An estimated 841 million people are undernourished and underweight, 1.2 billion do not have access to safe water. The income gar between the more affluent and the more poverty-stricken in the world is widening each year. While growth has become the norm everywhere since mid-century, some countries have been more successful in achieving it than others, leading to unprecedented income disparities among societies.

As the century comes to a close amidst financial crises from Indonesia to Russia, doubts about the basic soundness of the global economy have mounted. The needs of billions are inadequately met in the best of times, and as Indonesia's recent experience shows, even a brief reversal of economic growth can leave millions on the brink of starvation. More fundamentally, our current economic model is overwhelming the Earth's natural systems.

Depleting the Earth's Resources