Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости

Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?"

Economic Journal 113(484): 226-239. Ashiya, Masahiro, and Takero Doi, 2001, "Herd Behavior of Japanese

Economists." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 46:

343-346.

Attewell, P., 2001, "The Winner-take-all High School: Organizational

Adaptations to Educational Stratification." Sociology of Education 74:

267-295.

Ayache, E., 2004a, "The Back of Beyond," Wilmott (Spring): 26-29.

, 2004b, "A Beginning, in the End," Wilmott (Winter): 6-11.

Ayer, A. J., 1958, The Problem of Knowledge. London: Penguin Books,™

, 1972, Probability and Evidence. New York: Columbia University

Press.

, 1988, Voltaire. London: Faber and Faber.

Ayton, P., and A. G. R. McClelland, 1997, "How Real Is Overconfidence?" Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10:153-285.

Baddeley, Alan, 1997, Human Memory: Theory and Practice. London:

Psychology Press. Bak, Per, 1996, How Nature Works. New York: Copernicus. Bak, P., and K.Chen, 1991, "Self-organized criticality." Scientific American

264:46-53.

Ball, Philip, 2004, Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another.

London: Arrow Books.

, 2006, "Econophysics: Culture Crash." Nature 441: 686-688.

Banavar, J. R., F. Colaiori, A. Flammini, A. Maritan, and A. Rinaldo,

2000, "A Topology of the Fittest Transportation Network." Physical

Review Letters 84: 4745-4748. BARABasi,Albert-Laszlo, 2002, Linked: The New Science of Networks.

Boston: Perseus Publishing. BARABasi,Albert-Laszlo, and Reka Albert, 1999, "Emergence of Scaling

in Random Networks." Science 286:509-512. BARABasi,Albert-Laszlo, Reka Albert, and H. Jeong, 1999, "Mean-field

Theory for Scale-free Random Networks." Physica A 272:173-197. BARABasi,Albert-Laszlo, and EricBonabeau, 2003, "Scale-free Networks."

Scientific American 288(5): 50-59.*.

Baranski, J. V., and W. M. Petrusic, 1994, "The Calibration and

Resolution of Confidence in Perceptual Judgments." Perception and

Psychophysics 55: 412-428. Barber, В. M., and T. Odean, 1999, "Trading Is Hazardous to Your •tWealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual

Investors." Working Paper.

Barbour, A. D., and G. Reinert, 2000, "Small worlds." Preprint cond-

mat/0006001 atBar-Hillel, M., and W. A. Wagenaar, 1991, "The perception of

randomness." Advances in Applied Mathematics 12 (4): 428-454- т Baron, Jonathan, 2000, Thinking and Deciding, 3rd ed. New York:

Cambridge University Press.

Barron,G.,andI.Erev,2003,"SmallFeedback-basedDecisionsand

TheirLimitedCorrespondencetoDescription-basedDecisions."

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16:215-233. Barrow,JohnD.,1998,Impossibility: The Limits of Science and the Science

of Limits. London:Vintage. Barrow,JohnD.,andFrankJ.Tipler,1986,TheAnthropic Cosmological

Principle. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress. Barrow-Green,June,1996,Poincare and the Three Body Problem.

History of Mathematics, Vol.11,AmericanMathematicalSociety. BARTHeLeMY, M.,andL.A.N.Amaral,1999,"Small-worldNetworks:

EvidenceforaCrossoverPicture."Physical Review Letters 82:3180-

3183.

Bastiat,Frederic,1862-1864,Oeuvres completes de Frederic Bastiat,

6 vols.Paris:Guillaumin. Batchelor,R.A.,1990,"AllForecastersAreEqual."Journal of Business

and Economic Statistics 8(1):143-144.

,2001,"HowUsefulAretheForecastsofIntergovernmental

Agencies?TheIMFandOECDVersustheConsensus."Applied

Economics 33(2):225-235. Bates,Elisabeth,1994,"Modularity,DomainSpecificity,andthe

DevelopmentofLanguage."InD.C.Gajdusek,G.M.McKhann,and

C.L.Bolis,eds.,Evolution and Neurology of Language: Discussions in

Neuroscience 10:1-2,136-149. Bauman,A.O.,R.B.Deber,andG.G.Thompson,1991,"Overconfidence

AmongPhysiciansandNurses:The'microcertainty,macrocertainty'

phenomenon."Social Science and Medicine 32:167-174. Bayer,HansChristian,2003,Information: The New Language of Science.

London:OrionBooks,Ltd. Bechara,A.,A.R.Damasio,H.Damasio,andS.W.Anderson,1994,

"InsensitivitytoFutureConsequencesFollowingDamagetoHuman

PrefrontalCortex."Cognition 50:1-3,7-15. Becker,LawrenceC,1998,A New Stoicism. Princeton,N.J.:Princeton

UniversityPress.

Bellamy,Edward,1891,Cent ans apres, ou Van 2000, trad,dePanglais parPaulRey;avecunepref.parM.TheodoreReinach.Paris:E.Dentu.

Benartzi,Shlomo,2001."ExcessiveExtrapolationandtheAllocationof 401QOAccountstoCompanyStock,"Journal of Finance 56(5):1747-1764.

Benartzi, Shlomo, and Richard Thaler, 1995, "Myopic Loss Aversion and the v Equity Premium Puzzle." Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(1): 73-92. BeNASSY-QueRe, Agnes, 2002, "Euro/dollar: tout le mondepeutse tromper.

"La Lettre du СЕРП 215. Benkirane, R., 2002, La complexite, vertiges etpromesses: 18histoires de

sciences. Paris: Le Pommier. Berger, Peter L., and Thomas Luckmann, 1966, The Social Construction

of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge. New York: Anchor

Books.

Bernard, Andre, 2002, Rotten Rejections: The Letters That Publisher Wish

They'd Never Sent. London: Chrysalis Books. Bernard, Claude, 1878, La science experimentale. Paris: J.-B. Bailliere. Bernoulli, Daniel, 1954, "Exposition of a New Theory on the