Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания

Принятие стратегических решений – архитектура

Sibony, Olivier, Dan Lovallo, and Thomas C. Powell. “Behavioral Strategy and the Strategic Decision Architecture of the Firm.” California Management Review59, no. 3 (2017): 5–21.

Взгляд со стороны и прогнозирование по эталонному классу

De Reyck, Bert, et al. “Optimism Bias Study: Recommended Adjustments to Optimism Bias Uplifts.” UK Department for Transport, n. d. Avail-able at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system /uploads/attachment_data/file/576976/dft-optimism-bias-study.pdf.

Flyvbjerg, Bent. “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice.” European Planning Studies16, no. 1 (2008): 3–21.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Massimo Garbuio, and Dan Lovallo.“Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster.” California Management Review 51, no. 2 (2009): 170–93.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, and Allison Stewart.“Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Over run at the Olympics 1960–2012.” SSRN Electronic Journal, June 2012, 1–23.

Kahneman, Daniel. “Beware the ‘Inside View.’” McKinsey Quarterly, November 2011, 1–4.

Lovallo Dan, and Daniel Kahneman. “Delusions of Success.” Harvard Business Review, July 2003, 56–63.

Теорема Байеса и ее применение

Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t. New York: Penguin, 2012.

Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Broadway Books, 2016.

Разное

Sorkin, Andrew Ross. “Buffett Casts a Wary Eye on Bankers.” New York Times, March 1, 2010, citing Warren E. Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hatha-way shareholders.

Глава 16

Склонность к риску среди индивидуальных предпринимателей

Grant, Adam. Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World. New York: Penguin, 2017.

Эксперименты

Halpern, David. Inside the Nudge Unit: How Small Changes Can Make a Big Difference. New York: W. H. Allen, 2015.

Lourenço, Joana Sousa, et al. “Behavioural Insights Applied to Policy: European Report 2016.”

Ries, Eric. The Lean Startup. New York: Crown Business, 2011.

Польза техники «утро вечера мудренее»

Dijksterhuis, Ap, et al. (2006). “On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation Without Attention Effect.” Science311 (2006): 1005–7.

Vul, Edward, and Harold Pashler. “Measuring the Crowd Within: Probabilistic Representations Within Individuals.” Psychological Science19, no. 7 (2008): 645–48.

Заключение

Как пишет Гари Клайн:“Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Интервью с Даниэлем Канеманом и Гари Клайном. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

руководители «5-го уровня»: Collins, Jim. Good to Great. New York: Harper Business, 2001.