Думай «почему?». Причина и следствие как ключ к мышлению

There are several books dedicated to the topic of mediation. The most up-to-date reference is VanderWeele (2015); MacKinnon (2008) also contains many examples. The dramatic transition from the statistical approach of Baron and Kenny (1986) to the counterfactual-based approach of causal mediation is described in Pearl (2014) and Kline (2015). McDonald’s quote (to discuss mediation, “start from scratch”) is taken from McDonald (2001).

Natural direct and indirect effects were conceptualized in Robins and Greenland (1992) and deemed problematic. They were later formalized and legitimized in Pearl (2001), leading to the Mediation Formula.

In addition to the comprehensive text of VanderWeele (2015), new results and applications of mediation analysis can be found in De Stavola et al. (2015); Imai, Keele, and Yamamoto (2010); and Muthén and Asparouhov (2015). Shpitser (2013) provides a general criterion for estimating arbitrary path-specific effects in graphs.

The Mediation Fallacy and the fallacy of “conditioning” on a mediator are demonstrated in Pearl (1998) and Cole and Hernán (2002). Fisher’s falling for this fallacy is told in Rubin (2005), whereas Rubin’s dismissal of mediation analysis as “deceptive” is expressed in Rubin (2004).

The startling story of how the cure for scurvy was “lost” is told in Lewis (1972) and Ceglowski (2010). Barbara Burks’s story is told in King, Montañez Ramírez, and Wertheimer (1996); the quotes from Terman and Burks’s mother are drawn from the letters (L. Terman to R. Tolman, 1943).

The source paper for the Berkeley admissions paradox is Bickel, Hammel, and O’Connell (1975), and the ensuing correspondence between him and Kruskal is found in Fairley and Mosteller (1977).

VanderWeele (2014) is the source for the “smoking gene” example, and Bierut and Cesarini (2015) tells the story of how the gene was discovered.

The surprising history of tourniquets, before and during the Gulf War, is told in Welling et al. (2012) and Kragh et al. (2013). The latter article is written in a personal and entertaining style that is quite unusual for a scholarly publication. Kragh et al. (2015) describes the research that unfortunately failed to prove that tourniquets improve the chances for survival.

References

Baron, R., and Kenny, D. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51: 1173–1182.

Bickel, P. J., Hammel, E. A., and O’Connell, J. W. (1975). Sex bias in graduate admissions: Data from Berkeley. Science 187: 398–404.

Bierut, L., and Cesarini, D. (2015). How genetic and other biological factors interact with smoking decisions. Big Data 3: 198–202.

Burks, B. S. (1926). On the inadequacy of the partial and multiple correlation technique (parts I–II). Journal of Experimental Psychology 17: 532–540, 625–630.

Burks, F., to Mrs. Terman. (June 16, 1943). Correspondence. Lewis M. Terman Archives, Stanford University.

Ceglowski, M. (2010). Scott and scurvy. Idle Words (blog). Available at: http://www.idlewords.com/2010/03/scott_and_scurvy.htm (posted: March 6, 2010).

Cole, S., and Hernán, M. (2002). Fallibility in estimating direct effects. International Journal of Epidemiology 31: 163–165.

De Stavola, B. L., Daniel, R. M., Ploubidis, G. B., and Micali, N. (2015). Mediation analysis with intermediate confounding. American Journal of Epidemiology 181: 64–80.

Fairley, W. B., and Mosteller, F. (1977). Statistics and Public Policy. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.

Imai, K., Keele, L., and Yamamoto, T. (2010). Identification, inference, and sensitivity analysis for causal mediation effects. Statistical Science 25: 51–71.

King, D. B., Montañez Ramírez, L., and Wertheimer, M. (1996). Barbara Stoddard Burks: Pioneer behavioral geneticist and humanitarian. In Portraits of Pioneers in Psychology (C. W. G. A. Kimble and M. Wertheimer, eds.), vol. 2. Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ, 212–225.

Kline, R. B. (2015). The mediation myth. Chance 14: 202–213.

Kragh, J. F., Jr., Nam, J. J., Berry, K. A., Mase, V. J., Jr., Aden, J. K., III, Walters, T. J., Dubick, M. A., Baer, D. G., Wade, C. E., and Blackbourne, L. H. (2015). Transfusion for shock in U.S. military war casualties with and without tourniquet use. Annals of Emergency Medicine 65: 290–296.

Kragh, J. F., Jr., Walters, T. J., Westmoreland, T., Miller, R. M., Mabry, R. L., Kotwal, R. S., Ritter, B. A., Hodge, D. C., Greydanus, D. J., Cain, J. S., Parsons, D. S., Edgar, E. P., Harcke, T., Baer, D. G., Dubick, M. A., Blackbourne, L. H., Montgomery, H. R., Holcomb, J. B., and Butler, F. K. (2013). Tragedy into drama: An American history of tourniquet use in the current war. Journal of Special Operations Medicine 13: 5–25.

Lewis, H. (1972). Medical aspects of polar exploration: Sixtieth anniversary of Scott’s last expedition. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 65: 39–42.