Ellery Queen’s Mystery Magazine. Vol. 105, Nos. 3 & 4. Whole Nos. 640 & 641, March 1995

He said, “The science of psychological fingerprinting is still in its infancy, but if you apply it to the evidence in this case, an out-line — you might call it a silhouette of the killer — appears on the screen. It is necessary to accommodate two widely different aspects. On the one hand, the pathologists who studied the body all arrived at the same conclusion. That the killer must have been trained — though not necessarily practised — as a surgeon. He used a surgeon’s knife with a surgeon’s skill. That is the left-hand aspect. The right-hand aspect is the nature of the persons selected — apparently arbitrarily — for slaughter. A bill broker, a stock jobber in a small way of business, an assistant bank manager, and two accountants.”

“And one Italian, now identified for us as Umberto Bardi, possibly a criminal, and sent here by the mafia.”

“The sixth victim,” said Barley severely, “had nothing to do with the other five. His killing in that particular manner was a blind, calculated to deceive us.” He looked severely over his glasses at Mayburgh, who said, “Please go on.”

“The picture of the killer must combine these two facets. A man trained as a surgeon abandons that profession for reasons we can only speculate on and sets up a business of some sort in the City. His business collapses. His bank manager refuses further credit. A receiver, probably an accountant, is appointed. Either he himself is adjudged bankrupt, or his company is placed in compulsory liquidation. Since the fury inflamed by these happenings was fresh and compelling, I deduce that the business collapse must have occurred shortly before the first of the killings. They were random, in the sense that the victims were not selected personally. They were chosen as types. Just as Jack the Ripper is said to have been revenging himself on all prostitutes, he was taking his revenge on the City.”

“Could be something in that,” said Mayburgh. “But where does it take us?”

“Surely, if you accept my analysis, what we have to do is to study the record of business failures in the twelve months prior to the first killing. If the party involved has a background of surgical training — not a difficult matter to ascertain — then we have our hands on our man.”

Several weeks later Mr. Piggin reported to Hugo, with some amusement, “A business friend of mine tells me that Mayburgh is behaving — as he puts it — like a buffalo in a swamp. Raging to get out and attack, but too clogged to move fast in any direction. When he started he can have had no idea of the number of failures of small businesses. More than seven hundred in London alone in the year before the killings started. Nevertheless, he is plodding steadily forward, convinced that he will reach firm ground at last. He may do so. Inspector Barley is a clever young man. He may well, in fact, have arrived at the motive for the killings. But that only takes him halfway to the winning post.”

Hugo said, “I have been doing some thinking myself and have made some calculations.”

“Excellent. Most problems in this life can be solved by mathematics.”

“Actually, I was calculating what forces the police would have to deploy to protect the public. If the killings continue to be confined to the seven commuter lines from Liverpool Street—”

“Yes,” agreed Mr. Piggin. “I think we can take that as a basis for calculation.”

“Then since many of the early evening trains consist of twelve coaches, eighty-four men would be needed. Suppose that this degree of cover is maintained for, let us say, three months. If you ignore the weekends, this would mean sixty-five working days, necessitating a total deployment of five thousand, four hundred and sixty man hours. It’s a daunting total, but an effort of this magnitude wouldn’t be out of place to trap a serial killer.”

Mr. Piggin steepled his fingers and said, “Allow me to correct your factors. In making your calculations you have fallen into the same error as the police and the mafia. You have studied the killer’s method, but not his mind. So please think about him. He is a loner, sitting at home, working out his revenge on the City. Someone you might describe — odd though it seems in the circumstances — as an old maid, with an old maid’s love of neatness and regularity. Just consider how methodically he has conducted his campaign. One killing on each of the seven available lines. Upminster, Southend, Southminster, Clacton, and Norwich. And — this was the one you were involved in — Braintree. Then we have the aborted attempt on Mr. Osbaldistone — a most important episode. It took place on the Colchester line. And it was a failure. A man like ours abhors a failure. It upsets his pattern. Can we doubt that his next, and possibly his final effort will be a repeated attempt on the Colchester line which will round out the pattern?”

“Seems logical,” agreed Hugo.

“And since he always selects a latish commuter train I’d lay very heavy odds on the six-ten.”