Executive Intent

“We believe it was an unmanned reconnaissance vehicle, sir,” General Hua Zhilun, commander of 11th Strategic Rocket Forces of the People’s Liberation Army, replied. Young for a general officer at age fifty-three, Hua was lean, fit, and polished. He, too, wore spectacles, but he put them away as he addressed the minister. Hua was in charge of the newest division of the Strategic Rocket Forces based on Hainan Island: offensive long-range ballistic-missile forces with targets in space and at sea instead of land. “The sensor package has not yet been recovered, but I am confident that is what it is. Most certainly American.”

“Where could it have come from?”

“Most unmanned aerial vehicles today have very long-range and loiter capability, and could have come from thousands of miles away,” Hua replied, “but the shape of this one suggests it was submarine-launched. The Americans and British both employ UAVs that can be launched from submerged missile or torpedo tubes.”

“Ingenious,” Zung said. “But why use such a device over Hainan Island, when they certainly have satellites that can do a better job without fear of being shot down?”

“A satellite’s orbit and position at any given time can be predicted with high accuracy, sir, which can give one time to hide something that one does not want to be photographed,” Hua said. “Unmanned air vehicles such as this can pop up anywhere and anytime.”

“So the attack missiles on Hainan Island have been discovered?”

“We must assume they have, sir,” Hua said. “It is of little consequence.”

“Why do you say that, General?”

“The deterrent effect of the Dong Feng-21 missiles is much greater than their actual demonstrated capabilities, sir.”

“What do you mean?”

“To be quite honest, sir, the DF-21 antisatellite and antiship weapons are mostly for show as of yet,” Hua explained.

The defense minister’s eyes bulged with indignation. “Zhe shi shen-me yi-si? What did you say?”

“They are reliable and effective in their primary role as intermediate-range ballistic land-attack missiles, sir,” Hua explained, “but they have hardly been tested in their new roles. We were able to successfully intercept one satellite in a carefully rehearsed exercise with an absolutely fine-tuned weapon, but it is quite another matter to deploy a cold-soaked missile that has been in a transporter tube in a corrosive marine environment for a long period of time and have it successfully launch, track, and hit its target, even if the target is not maneuvering or dispersing countermeasures.”

“So why have we spent billions of yuan on them?” Zung asked incredulously. “Why would my predecessor agree to such a thing?”

“Because the Americans began deploying their Kingfisher antisatellite and antiballistic-missile weapons,” Hua replied, “and honored Defense Minister Chi wanted to respond in kind and as quickly as possible. We could argue that the Americans have the same problem with their Kingfisher weapon containers-space is far more hostile than salt air or terrestrial weather-but they chose to deploy them as they continue to test and upgrade them, and China had to respond in like manner.”

“So it is an empty force, a hollow threat, and a waste of money?” Zung asked.

“We really do not know for sure, sir, unless we test the systems more often,” Hua said. “But for the kind of tests we require to fully validate the DF-21 system, we need to launch at real satellites from real installations, not merely at simulated targets or on the Lop Nor instrumented test ranges. That means launching targets into orbit. My budget requested twenty million yuan per month for the next fifteen months just to test the antisatellite and antiship versions of the DF-21. It was turned down because the increased test tempo would certainly alert and possibly alarm the Americans.”

“I think that is not a consideration any longer, General, especially now that we know that Washington is stepping up deployment of those weapon satellites and being much more aggressive in surveillance,” Minister Zung said. “It will take some time to resubmit your requested testing funds, but I think this time they will be approved.” He paused for a moment, then said, “But are there other targets on which to test?”

“Other targets, sir?” Hua asked. He paused as well, then shook his head. “I know of no other suitable defunct or out-of-service satellites, sir,” he replied, “except the weather satellite we plan to use for the upcoming sea-launched weapon test. We could possibly inquire of our allies or commercial operators to see if-”

“What about satellites that are not defunct or out of service,” Zung asked, “and do not belong to our allies or ourselves?”

“Sir?” Hua was confused…but only for a moment. His eyes widened in surprise, and Zung thought he noticed the beginnings of a devilish smile on the corners of the young general’s lips. “Sir, are you suggesting…?”