Oath of Office

“A real pleasure, Mr. President,” Poteet said, his Texas accent as smooth as his hands were rough. “I apologize for being out of uniform.”

“Not a problem,” Ryan said. “I’m assuming you’re up to speed.”

Burgess spoke next. “He knows what I know, sir.”

“All right.” Ryan motioned for everyone to sit while he picked up the phone and spoke for a moment to his secretary. He replaced the handset and took his seat by the fireplace. “I’ve convened the full National Security Council in half an hour. I’d like to have a framework of ideas started before they arrive, so let’s have it.”

Poteet spent the next ten minutes going over Iran’s known stockpile of rockets and missiles, as well as their abilities to counter any attacks from other countries. Ryan knew much of the information, but the briefing helped to solidify it for the here and now of this situation.

“So,” Ryan said, leaning back in his chair and folding his arms in thought, “the Sejjil-2 is capable of reaching targets well over two thousand kilometers away?”

“That’s correct, sir,” the major said.

“GPS guidance?”

“Yes, sir. We believe it to be Iran’s most technologically advanced missile at this point.”

“The Russian Gorgons have a range of what, a thousand kilometers?”

“That’s about right,” Burgess said. “Sources within the Kremlin say more recent variants might give half again that range.”

“I see,” Ryan said. “That’s still nowhere near the range of the missiles Iran already has in her arsenal. Could they be planning to move the nuclear warheads from the Gorgons to the Sejjil?”

“That’s certainly possible,” Poteet said. “But it wouldn’t be very smart. The nuclear warhead on the 51T6, or Gorgon, is certainly a plum for the Iranian missile forces, but I believe what they’re after is the more sophisticated Russian guidance system. Iran has a way of grossly exaggerating the accuracy of their own armament.”

“That’s putting it mildly,” Mary Pat said. “We have satellite footage of them using an explosive charge to make it look like one of their bad boys hit a target during testing three years ago.”

“True enough, ma’am,” Major Poteet said. “And that’s not an isolated incident. We estimate the Circular Error Probable, or CEP, to be somewhere greater than five hundred meters on the Sejjil, even with the internal GPS.”

“Half a kilometer isn’t what I’d call precise munition,” Ryan said.

“Iran has the largest complement of missiles of any country in the Middle East,” Poteet said. “If you’ll excuse the euphemism, they’re fairly bristling with them. But none of them are precision instruments — yet. Sanctions certainly make it difficult for Iran to obtain certain electronics and the finely powdered metals they need for a consistent burn of their solid fuel. Up until now, even the Russians have balked at providing them with the most up-to-date systems. That said, I don’t want to understate the threat, either. Lob enough explosive at a target and some of it is bound to fall where you want it to.”

The steward from the Navy mess knocked, and then brought in the coffee Ryan had ordered. The conversation fell off until he left and shut the door behind him. As was his custom, Ryan served the coffee himself. It gave his hands something to do while his brain worked on a problem, a trick he’d learned from his father, who would often putter around in his woodshop while he stewed over a difficult murder investigation. He held a cup toward the major, a cube of sugar poised over it between the silver tongs.

“Black is fine, Mr. President,” Poteet said, looking more than a little embarrassed at being served by the Commander in Chief. A relatively junior rank at the Pentagon, majors were often the aides who got coffee for generals.

Ryan passed him the cup. “Let’s have some best guesses on where they want to hit with this Russian missile.”

“The Gorgon is mobile,” Poteet said. “So even with relatively limited range, they could reach any number of U.S. bases in central Asia, depending on where they launched from. Iraq is a viable target, as is Saudi Arabia or any number of Sunni countries.”

“There’s always Israel,” SecState Adler said. “It’s within range if they launch from western Iran. They’ve been rattling sabers at Jerusalem for decades. A nuclear warhead will be just the ticket for some of their hard-liners.”

“Maybe,” Mary Pat said. “But that’s less likely since they only have two.”

“That we know of,” Burgess said. “For all we know, they’ve been slipping missiles across the border for some time now.”

“Maybe,” Foley conceded. “But odds are someone in Russia would notice too many going missing. Even they have a finite number. Regarding Israel, there is a better-than-average chance that their Iron Dome defense system would stop one or two missiles during their terminal phase. We’re not talking MIRVs here.”

A MIRV was a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle — several warheads on a single missile, maximizing the damage from each. A Trident II submarine — launched missile could carry as many as fourteen.