Позитивные изменения. Тематический выпуск «Экономика будущего» (2023). Positive changes. Special issue «The economy of the future» (2023)

As the overall wealth increases, it will become possible to choose a job that may bring more satisfaction and less money. In other words, a higher average salary will be losing its significance in favor of other factors, such as a comfortable team – colleagues, management, atmosphere, and understanding of the importance of the activity carried out, its creative, non-routine nature.

The second important thing is that you will have to change faster, to be more flexible if you want to be the winner, including an economic victory. Thus, the number of enterprises for which continuous changes become the norm and which are transformed from force majeure to the practice of regular management will increase all the time. Further spread of mechanisms such as agile, corporate entrepreneurship, and corporate universities will continue.

On the other hand, in the conditions of rapid changes, small and medium-sized businesses, startups, which are more motivated and faster decision-makers than many large enterprises, will gain additional competitive advantages. This additionally raises the priority of dedicated startup financing mechanisms, such as venture capital financing and business angel investment, helping those players who are early in the enterprise lifecycle to reach a scale that allows them to operate successfully.

To summarize, an answer will be provided to the challenge associated with the need to consider the intangible, motivational component in the work. And the transformation of management tools of large companies will be guaranteed, which will lead to an acceleration of corporate innovation.

Vasily Burov: I think the story about social relationships, about involving people in the public, is very important. Right now, our general, and the one a little younger, are basically the last people to have an idea of what it is like not to be in touch all the time. It is a story about social relationships, about mutual help, etc. When the need for intermediaries linking people at different times and places disappears, it greatly changes social behavior and horizontal social relationships. New relationships have not yet been born, but there is a kind of substitute for them. I am talking specifically about the human-to-human communication in a network which has never been as dense as it is now.

Artem Shadrin: And this is facilitated by technologies, take videoconferencing for example.

Kirill Ignatyev: Continuing with the first presentation, I would like to offer a few theses from today’s "tomorrow," so to speak. First of all, two reservations must be made.

Until the current technological paradigm changes, the economy, which just recently was developing according to the global model, will become mixed (a world of blocs), as it adjusts to the adoption of sanctions, the creation of tactical alliances and conflicts. On this basis, we can foresee parallel technological services emerging in each bloc, and the growth of new forms of corruption associated not with the leading role of the state, but with the introduction and circumvention of inter-bloc restrictions. One might say that corruption is entering the global level.

And secondly, when we consider the economy of the future, we always put aside 10 % for the scenarios of the "black swan" economy, that is, in case, roughly speaking, of an apocalypse, a global catastrophe (such as a world war or a supervolcano eruption). Even the unlikely options must be considered.

As for the baseline scenario, i.e. a progressive economy, the first thing that will happen is a dramatic reduction in wage employment in companies over the horizon of two generations. Companies will be buying competencies and skills, rather than working time. And secondly, based on the current situation with aggravating global conflicts, it is obvious that the economy will get tired of stress, and we will see a major trend towards anthroponomics, that is, a human-centered economy, which will be oriented towards humane values, healthy lifestyle, values of human life, medicine, environment, etc. I foresee the role of this exact sector as the point of most important and rapid growth.

Another important point is the predictive nature of the economy, which today is defined by technologies. This trend will actually eliminate the crises of overproduction, since most of the manufacturing will be order-based. The monetization mechanisms will also change accordingly.