Red Storm Rising

"Forty-five days is a more realistic figure, Comrade." Sergetov held his position. "My department has studied fuel consumption by military units as part of a program to increase the strategic fuel reserves, something neglected in past years. With savings in other consumption and certain industrial sacrifices, we might expand this to sixty days of war stocks, perhaps even seventy, plus giving you other stocks to expand training exercises. The near-term economic costs would be slight, but by midsummer this would change rapidly." Sergetov paused, greatly disturbed at how easily he had gone along with the unspoken decision. I have sold my soul... Or have I acted like a patriot? Have I become like the other men around this ' table? Or have I merely told the truth-and what is truth? All he could be certain of, he told himself, is that he had survived. For now. "We do have the limited ability, as I told you yesterday, to restructure our distillate production. In this case, my staff feels that a nine-percent increase in the militarily important fuels can be accomplished-based on our reduced production. I caution, however, that my staff analysts also feel that all existing estimates of fuel usage in combat conditions are grossly optimistic." A last, feeble attempt at protest.

"Give us the fuel, Mikhail Eduardovich," the Defense Minister smiled coldly, "and we'll see it is properly used. My analysts estimate that we can accomplish our goals in two weeks, perhaps less-but I will grant you the strength of the NATO armies, and double our estimates to thirty days. We will still have more than enough."

"And what if NATO discovers our intentions?" old Petya demanded.

"They will not. Already we are preparing our maskirovka, our trickery. NATO is not a strong alliance. It cannot be. The ministers bicker over each country's defense contribution. Their peoples are divided and soft* They cannot standardize their weapons, and because of it their supply situation is utter chaos. And their most important, most powerful member is separated from Europe by five thousand kilometers of ocean. The Soviet Union is only an overnight train ride from the German border. But, Petya, my old friend, I will answer your question. If everything fails, and our intentions are discovered, we can always stop, say that we were running an exercise, and return to peacetime conditions-and be no worse off than if we do nothing at all. We need strike only if all is ready. We can always draw back."

Everyone at the table knew that was a he, though a clever one, because no one had the courage to denounce it as such. What army had ever been mobilized to be called back? No one else spoke up to oppose the Defense Minister. Bromkovskiy rambled on for a few minutes, quoting Lenin's stricture about endangering the home of World Socialism, but even that drew no response. The danger to the State-actually the danger to the Party and the Politburo-was manifest. It could not become graver. The alternative was war.

Ten minutes later, the Politburo voted. Sergetov and his eight fellow candidate members were mere spectators. The vote was eleven to two for war. The process had begun.

DATE-TIME 02/03 17: 15 COPY 01 OF 01 OF SOVIET-REPORT

BC-Soviet Report, Bjt, 2310-FL-

TASS Confirms Oil Field Fire-FL-

EDS: Moved in advance for SATURDAY PMs-FL-

BY: Patrick Flynn-FC-

AP Moscow Correspondent

MOSCOW (AP)-It was confirmed today by TASS, the Soviet news agency, that "a serious f ire" had taken place in the western Siberian region of the Soviet Union.

A back-page article in Pravda, the official Communist Party newspaper noted the fire, commenting that the "heroic fire brigade" had saved countless lives by its skill and devotion to duty, also preventing more serious damage to the nearby oil facilities.

The fire was reportedly begun by a "technical malfunction" in the automatic refinery control systems and spread rapidly, but was swiftly extinguished, "not without casualties among the brave men detailed to attack the fire, and the courageous workmen who raced heroically to their comrades' side."

Though somewhat at odds with Western reports, the fire in the area did go out more quickly than had been expected. Western officials are now speculating about a highly sophisticated firefighting system built into the Nizhnevartovs facility that allowed the Soviets to extinguish the fire.

AB-BA-2-3 16: 01 EST-FL-

**END OF STORY**

3 - Correlation of Forces

MOSCOW, R.S.F.S.R.

"They didn't ask me," explained Chief of the General Staff Marshal Shavyrin. "They didn't ask for my evaluation. The political decision was already made when they called me in Thursday night. When was the last time the Defense Minister asked me for a substantive judgmental decision?"

"And what did you say?" asked Marshal Rozhkov, Commander-in-Chief of Ground Forces. The initial response was a grim, ironic smile.