Регионы в современном мире: глобализация и Азия. Зарубежное регионоведение

Появление Китая как участника региональной политики на Балканах – совершенно новое явление. Влияние Китая и в экономике, и в политике неуклонно растет, и были предприняты взаимные шаги для укрепления военного сотрудничества. Китайские компании стали важнейшими инвесторами, от которых зависит экономическое развитие в регионе, китайские банки финансируют крупные инфраструктурные проекты в регионе. Заметным стало и присутствие Китая в культурной политике, появились центры научного сотрудничества. Учитывая, что ЕС и НАТО считают Китай геополитическим противником, нет сомнения, что они используют институциональные механизмы и экономическое давление для сдерживания Китая на Балканах. Но в свете итогов сотрудничества между Китаем и балканскими странами у этого формата есть перспективы. Тем не менее в будущем это сотрудничество ждут серьезные испытания.

Ключевые слова: Китай, Балканы, Западные Балканы, китайское влияние, ЕС, НАТО.

CHINA’S GROWING INFLUENCE IN THE BALKANS: CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES

DUSAN PROROKOVI'C

Head of the Center for Eurasian Studies at the Institute of International Politics and Economics, Associate Professor, Faculty for Diplomacy and Security, Belgrade, Serbia

dusan@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs

The emergence of China as a regional policy actor in the Balkans is a completely new phenomenon. China’s influence has been growing, both in economy and in politics, and initial steps have been taken to improve military relations. To date, Chinese companies have become indispensable investors, on which economic growth in the region depends, and banks are important lenders that finance the construction of some of the most important infrastructure projects. The offensive of Chinese institutions in the field of cultural diplomacy is also visible, with the expansion of scientific cooperation with research centers in the Balkans. Given that the EU and NATO have recognized China as a geopolitical challenger and Chinfluence as a threat, it is undoubted that they will use institutional mechanisms and economic leverage to attempt to limit or squeeze China out of the Balkans. From the perspective of the ten-year development of relations between China and the Balkan countries, this format has a perspective. At the same time, looking at the long-term interests of the EU and NATO, there are many challenges ahead.

Keywords: China, Balkans, Western Balkans, Chinfluence, EU, NATO.

Introduction

The emergence of China as a regional policy actor in the Balkans is a completely new phenomenon. Namely, from 1958 to 1978, China established special ties with Albania. China returned to this region 30 years later. Since 2009, China’s influence has been growing, both in economy and in politics.

The growth of Chinese influence in the Balkans has been recorded since the implementation of the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Intensified political contacts and first investments emerged in 2009, at the stage when the BRI was being prepared. Since 2013, we have been witnessing a kind of “eruption” [Dimitrijevi'c, Ping, 2017].

The Balkan Peninsula is an integral part of the European (Maritime) Route. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang “described the port of Piraeus as a pearl in the Mediterranean Sea and said it could become one of the most competitive ports of the world”1. Also, the Balkans is well connected (transport and economic ties) with Western Turkey (CAWA route) and Central Europe (NELB).

As a result, in September 2019, a direct railway connection was established via NELB from Jinan (Shandong Province) to Belgrade (Serbia)2. In this context, the initiative to modernize the Belgrade–Budapest railway should also be considered. In 2014 governments of China, Serbia, Hungary and Macedonia signed an agreement on the modernization of railroad traffic with the intention to extend the Budapest-Belgrade railway to the south towards Macedonia and Greece through a North-South vertical. Thus, the new transport corridor would connect the port in Piraeus and the most important traffic junctions of Central Europe, which are part of the NELB.

Тhe CEE (Central – Eastern Europe) region “is attractive to China thanks to its strategic geographical position for the New Silk Road project, its high-skilled yet cheap labour, and its open trade and investment environment.” [Stanzel, 2016. P. 1].

Тable 1: Land and Maritime routes – Belt and Road Initiative3

Table 2: Chinese firms’ major construction contracts in the Western Balkans, 2010–2017 [Holzner, Schwarzhappel, 2018. P. 17]