Rogue Forces

THIRD QUARTER FORECAST, STRATFOR.COM, 8 JULY 2008:

…Regional trend: Turkey is emerging as a major regional power and in 2008 will begin to exert influence throughout its periphery—most notably in northern Iraq…Turkey is becoming bolder on the international stage: sending troops into northern Iraq, mediating Israeli-Syrian peace talks, pushing energy projects in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and making its influence felt in the Balkans…

“IRAQI PARLIAMENT CALLS SESSION ON KIRKUK,” ASSOCIATED PRESS, 30 JULY 2008:

…Tensions escalated Monday after a suicide bomb attack in Kirkuk during a Kurdish protest against the elections law killed 25 people and injured more than 180.

Kirkuk is home to Kurds, Turkomans, Arabs, and other minorities. After the explosion in Kirkuk, dozens of angry Kurds stormed the offices of a Turkoman political party that opposes Kurdish claims on Kirkuk, opening fire and burning cars amid accusations that their rivals were to blame. Nine Turkomen, or ethnic Turks, were reported wounded.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, which has been defending the rights of Turkomen, called Iraqi authorities to express concern over the incidents in Kirkuk and proposed to send a plane to bring the wounded to Turkey for treatment, the Iraqi president’s office said…

“TURKEY CONCERNED WITH CITY OF KIRKUK,” ASSOCIATED PRESS, 2 AUGUST 2008:

 Baghdad—The Turkish government has expressed concern regarding the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, where ethnic Turks are locked in a territory dispute, an Iraqi official says.

An unidentified Iraqi foreign ministry spokesman said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had been contacted by Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babican regarding the situation in the city, the Kuwait News Agency KUNA reported Saturday.

The province of Kirkuk has demanded the city become part of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, while Turkey has steadfastly opposed such a movement.

While the city holds the largest concentration of ethnic Turks in Iraq, the spokesman said Zebari has maintained that any attempts to solve the dispute will be conducted solely by Iraq.

Zebari said any outside attempts to become involved in the dispute would not be welcomed by Iraq, the spokesman told KUNA.