Skunk Works

Nuclear proliferation is a growing menace: a bomb in the hands of the North Koreans, the Pakistanis, or the Iranians makes the world infinitely dangerous and demands the closest surveillance, which only the most advanced technology can provide. At last count there were about 110 local wars or potential trouble spots around the globe to keep a close eye on. Human conflicts may be smaller in size and scope in the post–cold war era, but certainly not in nastiness. Littoral confrontations—local conflicts caused by political, religious, or ideological differences—will probably monopolize international tensions and concerns for at least the remainder of this century. Increasingly, we will be facing small hostile countries armed to the teeth with the latest weapons technologies purchased from irresponsible outlets in Western Europe or from Russian, Chinese, or North Korean sources. A small country firing high-tech weaponry can do as much damage on the battlefield as a major power. Just remind the Russian high command of the tremendous losses of Hind helicopters they sustained in Afghanistan to a bunch of ragtag peasants firing shoulder-held Stinger missiles, supplied to them by our CIA.

Small localized conflicts are going to be played out on the ground by highly mobile strike forces requiring air superiority, overhead surveillance, and surgical air strikes with high-precision guided ordinance; and a Skunk Works that is expert at low rate production of startling new technologies will undoubtedly serve important national security purposes in the future as it has in the past.

Given current contractions in defense spending and needs, the mountainous inventory of big-strike weapons like intercontinental missiles will be sharply reduced and much of it scrapped. The remaining systems will need updating with the latest technologies, improved to reduce maintenance and manpower utilizations—perfect tasks for Skunk Works operations.

As regions of the world become increasingly unstable, the U-2 fleet might undergo its third reconfiguration in its five decades of service to the nation as our preeminent spy plane. And while that is happening a future successor of mine at the Skunk Works will undoubtedly be peddling ideas for solving technological problems arising out of nonuse of weapons—for example, how to keep silo-based missiles reliable and effective after years of sitting inert in the ground. In some cases reliability has dropped below 50 percent. Another big problem that a Skunk Works would be eager to try to solve is eliminating battlefield deaths caused by accidental friendly fire. Twenty-six percent of our battlefield deaths in Desert Storm resulted from our own shells and bullets. What is needed is some sort of foolproof technology, which the Pentagon has designated IFF—Identify Friend or Foe. The Army plans to spend nearly $100 million developing exclusive radio frequency signals that troops can use in the field at night (our GIs may give off a definite buzz), as well as infrared devices and paints on trucks and tanks that only our side can see using special lenses.

As the only remaining superpower, the United States will be wise to resist being drawn into any military intervention on the short end of public support or lacking a clear threat to our own national security. But even a leader able to whip up sentiment for “sending in the Marines” will find it dicey to undertake any prolonged struggle leading to significant casualties. New technologies will focus increasingly on developing non-manned fighting machines by using reliable drones, robotics, and self-propelled vehicles. As we proved in Desert Storm, the technology now exists to preprogram computerized combat missions with tremendous accuracy so that our stealth fighters could fly by computer program precisely to their targets over Iraq. A stealthy drone is clearly the next step, and I anticipate that we are heading toward a future where combat aircraft will be pilotless drones. On the ground and at sea as well, remote-controlled tanks and missile launchers and unmanned computer-programmed submarines and missile frigates will provide the military advantage to those possessing the most imaginative and reliable electronics and avionics. Field commanders can conduct battles and actually aim and fire weapons systems from the safety of control centers thousands of miles away—their targets sighted by the high-powered lenses aboard drone surveillance aircraft which they remotely control. This is not a Buck Rogers scenario; this is around the corner. Tomorrow’s most prized military breakthrough may be in the form of a dazzlingly new and powerful microchip.