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By

Tom Clancy

Preface: Prelude to War

    Though the name may sound obscure, the Spratly Islands have been a cause of conflict in East Asia for quite some time. Sovereignty over all or part of this potentially resource-rich archipelago in the South China Sea is presently contested by Vietnam, China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Although the Manila Declaration by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1992 promised to resolve this dispute peacefully, the nations involved have yet to arrive at a consensus about the future of this territory. In the past few months, tensions have mounted between the East Asian nations, and the need to have the United Nations serve as a mediating force has been suggested. At this point in time, many of the countries have stationed troops on the islands and some have begun to build their own infrastructures, causing further disagreements.

    "The dispute over the Spratly Islands has served as a further impediment to healing many of the rifts existing within East Asia. This issue needs to be addressed on an international level before it escalates into higher forms of conflict. The Special Political and Decolonization Committee will attempt to consolidate the interests of all parties involved and hopefully diminish a source of growing regional conflict in the world."

    -The New American

    "China's aggressive search for oil near the Spratly Islands of Vietnam's coast has become the most serious threat of war along China's frontier."

    Jim Landers, The Dallas Morning News

    Chinese leader dies, power struggle anticipated

    July 19, 1997

    Web posted at: 12:00 P.M. EST (1700 GMT)

    From Beijing bureau chief Julie Meyer

    BEIJING (TCN)-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping died today at the age of ninety-two. Having suffered multiple strokes in the previous two years, Deng had reportedly been living in a military hospital for the past eighteen months and was said to have been barely able to speak for much of that time.

    Deng's successor, President Jiang Zemin, was chosen by Deng himself over a year ago, yet could not assert full leadership rights until Deng, as "paramount leader," had died. Now that Deng is dead, many experts feel that Jiang's position will be challenged by his peers among the Chinese government, and that a power struggle will ensue.

    Among the suspected challengers to Jiang is Premier Li Peng, a Marxist conservative who played a major role in the quashing of the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations. Li is said to be intent on scaling back China's economic growth, which he feels to be unstable, should he take control.

    Another possible contender is Zhu Rongji, senior vice premier and the liberal economist responsible for much of China's economic growth under Deng. However, Zhu has alienated much of the Chinese bureaucracy with his infamous temper and acidic comments, and experts believe that he does not enjoy the support necessary to win the leadership battle.