The Never Game

   Suicide: 1 % (no history of mental issues, no previous attempts, no suicidal communication, doesn’t fit with scene in San Miguel Park).

   Kidnapping/murder: 80 %.

     Kidnapped by former boyfriend Kyle Butler: 10 % (somewhat unstable, possibly abusive, drug history, didn’t take breakup well; hasn’t returned calls of CS).

     Killed in gang initiation: 5 % (MT-44 and several Latino gangs active in area, but crews generally leave corpses in public as proof of kill).

     Kidnapped by FM’s former wife, Sophie’s mother: <1 % (Sophie is no longer a minor, the divorce happened seven years ago, criminal records and other background check of mother make this unlikely).

     For-profit kidnapping: 10 % (no ransom demand, they usually occur within 24 hours of abduction; father isn’t wealthy).

     Kidnapped to force FM to divulge sensitive information from one of his two jobs: 5 % (one, middle management in automotive parts sales; the other, warehouse manager with no access to sensitive or valuable information or products). Would expect contact by now.

     Kidnapped to force Sophie to divulge information about her part-time job as coder at software development company, GenSys: 5 % (does work not involving classified information or trade secrets).

     Killed because she witnessed a drug sale between boyfriend, Kyle Butler, and dealer who didn’t want identity known: 20 % (NOTE: Butler is missing too; related victim?).

     Kidnapped/killed by antisocial perpetrator, serial kidnapper or killer; SM raped and murdered or kept for torture and sex, eventual murder: 60 %–70 %.

   Unknown motive: 7 %.

 Relevant details:

   SM’s credit cards have not been used in two days; FM is on cards and has access.

   Quick Byte Café has video of possible suspect following her. Manager has preserved original and uploaded to cloud. Tiffany Monroe. CS has copy.

   Under expectation-of-privacy laws, FM cannot access her phone log.

   Perpetrator possibly put tracking device on bike to follow her.

   Mulliner’s house just on market, no prospective buyers yet to case the location for kidnapping potential.

The detective’s carefully shaved face wore a frown. “The hell all this come from, Chief?”

The nickname rankled but Shaw ignored it; he was making headway. “The information?” He shrugged. “Facts from her father, some legwork of mine.”

Wiley muttered, “What’s with the percentages?”

“I rank things in priority. Tells me where to start. I look at the most likely first. That doesn’t pan out, I move to the next.”

He read it again.

“They don’t add up to a hundred.”

“There’s always the unknown factor — that something I haven’t thought of’s the answer. Will you send a team to the park, Detective?”

“Alrightyroo. We’ll look into it, Chief.” He smoothed the copy of Shaw’s analysis and shook his head, amused. “I can keep this?”

“It’s yours.”

Shaw set the cell phone and the chip of reflector in front of Wiley.