В поисках энергии. Ресурсные войны, новые технологии и будущее энергетики

17. Revelle Oral History (“most beautiful”); Arrhenius Oral History (“I’m sorry”).

18. Keeling, “Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth,” p. 48 (“present trends”); Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, p. 38 (“central icon”).

19. Alan D. Hecht and Dennis Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change: A Scientific and Policy History,” Climactic Change 29 (1995), p. 375.

20. The White House, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment: Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, November 1965, pp. 126–27 (“almost certainly”); Hubert Heffner to Dr. Daniel P. Moynihan, January 26, 1970, Moynihan Papers, Nixon Library; Steven R. Weisman, Daniel Patrick Moynihan: Portrait in Letters of an American Visionary (New York: Public Affairs, 2010), p. 202 (“get involved”).

21. Betty Friedan, “The Coming Ice Age,” Harper’s, September 1958; G. J. Kukla and R. K. Matthews, “When Will the Present Interglacial Period End?” Science 178, no. 4057 (1972), pp. 190–91 (“global cooling”); Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 376 (Defense Department climate analysis); S. I. Rasool and S. H. Schneider, “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate,” Science 173, no. 3992 (1971), pp. 138–41 (“trigger an ice age”); James Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998), p. 132 (U. S. National Science Board report); Wallace Broecker, “Climate Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” Science 189, no. 4201 (1975), pp 460–63 (“discount the warming effect”).

22. Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 377 (“propelling concern”) Thomas Peterson, William Connolley, and John Fleck disagree, strongly arguing that it is a “popular myth” and a “falsehood” to say that “in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting ‘global cooling.’ “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, John Fleck, “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 89, Issue 9, pp. 1325–37. Они пришли к такому выводу на основе анализа публикаций, включая цитаты из различных статей, за период с 1965 по 1979 г. Вину за «миф» они возложили в определенной мере на «средства массовой информации». Вместе с тем, как свидетельствует ответ Мойнихану, между учеными в те годы существовал ясный раскол. Как заметил отец моделирования климата Сюкуро Манабе, «в то время глобальное потепление никого не волновало… Некоторые считали, что надвигается новый ледниковый период». Однако к концу 1970-х гг. акцент сместился с похолодания на потепление, если не считать, конечно, «ядерной зимы». Короче говоря, все это десятилетие характеризовалось отсутствием «согласия».

23. Newsweek, April 28, 1975; “What Is Happening to Our Climate,” National Geographic, November 1976, Time magazine, August 19, 1976.

24. R. P. Turco, O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan, “Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions,” Science 222, no. 4630 (1983), pp. 1283–92.

25. Hart and Victor, “Scientific Elites,” pp. 657–61 (“advertant”); Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, p. 5 (Kennedy); Martin Campbell-Kelly and William Aspray, Computer: A History of the Information Machine (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2004), p. 79 (“considerable temerity”).

26. Norman Macrae, John von Neumann: The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered the Modern Computer, Game Theory, Nuclear Deterrence, and Much More (American Mathematical Society, 2008), pp. 5, 248 (“last words”).

27. Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 52, 250, 266, 325, 369; Stanislaw M. Ulam, Adventures of a Mathematician (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), pp. 4, 203, 245.

28. Campbell-Kelly and Aspray, Computer, pp. 3–4 (“computers”); Macrae, John von Neumann, p. 234 (“modern mathematical modeling”).

29. Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 302 (“phenomena”).

30. Spencer Weart, “Government: The View from Washington, DC,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at(“warfare”); Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 316 (“jiggle,” “weather predictions”); New York Times, February 9, 1957 (“electronic brain”).