Vortex

“We can move a carrier battle group down from the Indian Ocean and cut off South

Africa’s seaborne commerce. “

Nicholson was shocked and didn’t bother concealing it.

“Use the military?

That’s insane! A blockade on South Africa’s imports and exports would send world commodity prices into the stratosphere! And that’s precisely what we’re trying so desperately to stop!”

Others around the table muttered their agreement.

Forrester held up his hand for silence and got it. He tapped Reid’s economic report.

“I don’t think there’s anything we can do to stop these price increases, Chris. As long as those bastards in Pretoria are in power, we’re going to be in trouble. So maybe it’s worth some short-term pain to get rid of what would otherwise be a long-term problem.”

Nicholson changed tack.

“What if Vorster decides to retaliate against

U.S. citizens still inside South Africa?”

“Highly unlikely, Mr. Director.” Edward Hurley reentered the fray.

“Vorster’s already at war with the Cubans, the Narnibians, and at least four-fifths of his own population. I doubt he’ll want to add us to the list.”

The bearded State Department official pushed his glasses back up his nose before continuing.

“In any event, there aren’t many Americans left in

South Africa as targets. Fewer than three or four hundred as near as we can tell. ” He flipped to a page near the back of his briefing binder.

“We’ve been tracking the numbers on a day-by-day basis. Most tourists left after we posted the travel advisory, and companies still

doing business inside the RSA have been shuttling their American executives home for weeks. Plus, we’re already down to a skeleton staff at the embassy.”

“All right. But what if their navy tried to stop us?” Nicholson seemed determined to find reasons to scuttle the proposed blockade.

Hickman snorted.

“The South African Navy has a few short-range missile boats, three old submarines, and no naval air capability. They’re a fourth-rate naval power. ” He shook his head.

“Hell, Libya’s a bigger naval threat! Our ships can patrol well out to sea-beyond their range-and block a merchant ship traffic into and out of the country.”

Nicholson purpled.

“I don’t doubt that we could establish such a blockade,

General. That’s not my point.” He turned to Forrester.

“The key question is, should we do such a thing in the first place?”

“What’s your alternative, Chris?” Forrester asked, curious to see what the

CIA director had in mind.

Nicholson opened his mouth and then shut it again, taken aback.

“I’m not saying there’s any kind of a guarantee that a blockade will force the South Africans to dump Vorster and act more reasonably,” Hickman explained, “but it would sure as hell boost the pressure on their economy.”

“Just how much pressure?” Forrester directed his question to a still-stunned Hamilton Reid.

The secretary of commerce rubbed the bridge of his nose.

“Quite a lot, Mr.

Vice President. South Africa could still export by air and ground of course, but those are awfully narrow ‘pipelines’ for their major products.”

He nodded toward the map.

“And some commodities, especially oil, have to come by sea. In fact, oil imports are their biggest Achilles’ heel. It’s about the only mineral resource South Africa doesn’t have in ridiculous abundance.”

Hurley frowned.

“I’m not sure that’s quite right, Mr. Secretary. Last time

I checked, Pretoria was supposed to have a five-year strategic petroleum reserve stashed away.”

“A five-year reserve in a peacetime economy,” General

Hickman pointed out.

“But there’s a war on down there, and wars burn gas at a helluva rate.”

Forrester nodded slowly.

“True enough. And imposing a blockade on South

Africa’s imports would send a pretty goddamned strong shot across

Vorster’s bow-one he couldn’t shrug off or just ignore. ” He felt a small, tight smile spread across his face. Even thinking about doing something real, something concrete, about the mess in South Africa made him feet better.

He looked at Hickman.

“How soon could that carrier group reach South

African waters?”

“We could have a carrier, her escorts, and eighty-six aircraft in range in eight days, Mr. Vice President.”

“I still don’t think sending a warship is the best course of action.”

Nicholson sounded worried, almost alarmed at the idea.

“Using any kind of military force would be inflammatory. “

“And just whose opinion would we be inflaming, Mr. Director?” Hurley didn’t bother hiding his sarcasm.

“The South Africans? Hell, I should hope so. That’d be the whole point of the exercise. The Europeans? I sincerely doubt it. If anything, most Europeans are even more outraged by Vorster’s actions than people are here in the States.”

Forrester mentally scored a point for Hurley. His reading of European political and public opinion seemed right on target. As an example,