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War with Russia

“Range, yes. Impact, no. Each one of those tactical nukes is many, many times more powerful than the bombs that flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And you may think that is an acceptable risk sitting out of Iskander range in London,” Kydd gave both men a hard look. “But if you’re Polish, German or Danish, and well within Iskander range, you’d take a very different view. Besides, once tactical nukes start getting flung about, it’s a very short step to an exchange of intercontinental ballistic missiles… the really big boys. And then it’s welcome to Armageddon.”

“But surely, even if we’re outmatched conventionally, we’ve still got Trident?”

“OK, Prime Minister,” sighed Kydd, “let me take you through this from first principles. You ask what the Russians will do and I’ll repeat. They’ll do what they’ve done at the end of every snap exercise they’ve called recently. Launch an Iskander tactical nuke as what they call a de-escalatory measure to stop us dead in our tracks and stop us counter-attacking.”

“Hardly sounds to me like de-escalation. Surely them firing a nuke will lead to all-out nuclear war?” asked Little.

“That’s precisely the point, Prime Minister. It’s counter-intuitive… the President knows that there’s no way you are going to risk the destruction of human life in the UK by launching a Trident at Russia in response to his tactical nuke when, by so doing, you can almost guarantee a retaliatory strike from an intercontinental ballistic missile in return.”

“So, how should we respond? We just have to take it on the chin?”

“Sadly, with the state of our Armed Forces as they are today… Yes. That would be my advice. Plenty of people told the last government that to be effective, deterrence needs to be matched at every level, conventional and nuclear. As I’ve just explained, you can’t weaken conventional forces and expect Trident alone to protect you. Conversely, if we did have strong conventional forces, but no Trident, they could easily defeat us by threatening to nuke us and we would have no way of deterring them. By allowing our conventional forces to be run down as they have, our whole defense posture is now dangerously out of balance. When you’re up against a ruthless predatory bastard like the President, that means we are now in a very dangerous place.”

“So those billions spent on Trident were a false insurance policy, CDS?”

“You’ve got it in one, Prime Minister… if they weren’t matched by money spent on strong conventional forces. If you put all your money into Trident, you either accept defeat or you make mutually assured destruction—or MAD—more, not less, likely. Can you put your hand on your heart and say you’d order the captain of the at-sea Trident boat to launch when you know that, whatever happens, millions upon millions in Britain are going to die? I doubt it. When it gets to that point, you can forget the theology of nuclear deterrence. Second strikes and all that. It becomes a moral issue. Are you going to respond to one apocalyptic war crime with another?”

“You’re saying we’d have been better putting our money into conventional defense?”

“Spot on again, Prime Minister, although backed up by Trident; conventional and nuclear deterrence are two sides of the same coin. As I’ve told you, one needs the other to work properly. But there’s more to it than that. It’s one thing to have capability, you’ve also got to communicate your determination to use it. That means telling the world, as your predecessor did, that your army isn’t for fighting but is there for humanitarian relief, is not only downright dishonest, it’s fucking dangerous. Our enemies have been watching and listening. Wars start when one side thinks the other side is so weak it can get one over it. Which is why we are where we now are…”

“So, where does that leave us, CDS?”

“We’re going to have to be seriously clever, Prime Minister,” said Kydd, looking somber. “Either that or kiss goodbye, not only to the Baltics, but to human civilization as we know it… Which is why, right now, I see a sneak attack on Kaliningrad as the only possible option. You need to speak to President Dillon and the NATO Sec General as soon as possible, if we are to begin to get this show on the road before next Christmas.”

Little looked at Walker. “Trev, fix that. As soon as you can, please.”

Then he turned to Everage. “And you’re sacked!”

“But, Oliver,” Everage spluttered in indignation. “You agreed those cuts. You were the one who demanded savings to deal with the deficit. Surely you—”

“Enough,” the Prime Minister interrupted. “I agree. I did. But that was then and this is now. I’ve changed my mind, as I’m entitled to. The military clearly have no confidence in you and nor do I. Leave now. Your resignation speech will have to wait as well. CDS and I have got much bigger problems to deal with.”