War with Russia

“Vladimir Vladimirovich. NATO, under American leadership, has mobilized significant forces. In the western Baltic, the Alliance has amassed an amphibious force based on 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force, that’s an air-ground task force of around divisional size. Supporting it is the American 6th Fleet with two carrier battlegroups and a total of forty ships, with one hundred and seventy-five aircraft. All in all that’s a sizable force in its own right. At the same time, the Alliance has concentrated a strong corps of three divisions under Headquarters ARRC, that’s the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, the British-led NATO High Readiness Force Land headquarters. They are now in northeast Poland, just south of the Lithuanian border.”

“Does that mean we are outnumbered?”

“No. But our forces are dispersed throughout the Baltic states, whereas NATO can concentrate all their effort to achieve decisive effect and we’ll be heavily outnumbered at that point.”

The President thought about this for a few moments. “So the strategic situation is still in our favor. If the Alliance is foolish enough to concentrate its forces at one point, which they must to launch a successful attack, they can be eradicated by just one of our tactical nuclear warheads?”

“Correct, Vladimir Vladimirovich.” The general gave a grim smile. “There may be a distinction between tactical and intercontinental warheads, but the reality is that even the smallest modern warhead is many times more powerful than the bomb the Americans dropped on the Japanese in 1945. Just one well-placed tactical warhead will rip the heart out of an army corps. Those not incinerated on the spot will be too traumatized to continue fighting. Many more will die in the following days and weeks.”

“And they can do the same to us with their Cruise missiles…”

“Exactly. The difference is that Russia is such a vast country that we can disperse and hide and enough of us will survive. Western Europe is heavily populated. Their electorates would never permit such a thing. What is more, their politicians know we really will push the button if we are attacked.”

The President nodded, calmer now. “As you say, Mikhail Nikolayevich, exactly. So, is this force they are pretending to threaten us with in the Baltic entirely American? What about the three divisions under the ARRC?”

“Vladimir Vladimirovich, you’re correct that the Baltic naval and amphibious force is largely American, but not entirely. The British have deployed their Commando brigade headquarters in HMS Albion, an amphibious ship, together with a Royal Marine commando, while the Dutch have committed a marine battalion in the Rotterdam, their amphibious ship. Besides that, the British have also deployed HMS Ocean, a helicopter carrier, together with all the escorts they can muster. Add to that the French carrier, Charles de Gaulle and a number of escorts—frigates and destroyers—from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Denmark and Belgium, to say nothing of, probably, hunter-killer subs from UK, France, Germany and, of course, America. So, the European members of NATO can certainly say to each other that they’ve stepped up to the mark. And, that is what our informants tell us they are saying to each other at leader and foreign minister level. The key point to make here is that, even with all their command and control problems, this force is significantly bigger than our Baltic Fleet. And that would be worrying if we thought that they were ready to risk nuclear retaliation, which…”

“They are not,” said the President interrupting, ignoring Gareyev’s concerns. “What about the divisions under the NATO corps in northeast Poland?”

“The strongest by far is the US Fourth Infantry, but on top of that there is the UK’s Third Division with a British armored brigade and a French Foreign Legion light-armored brigade. We’ve also just heard that the Italians are sending the Ariete armored brigade, which has always had a very close relationship with the ARRC. Most of the combat support—the artillery, engineers, reconnaissance and other support—is British, but with a fair representation from a number of other nations. And, of course, every nation will be contributing logistic units to support their own people.”

“And the Germans?”

“Yes. We’ve all been surprised by the Germans. First Panzer Division is now deployed and ready to roll in northeast Poland. And it’s strong. It has also been reinforced by the Polish Tenth Armored Cavalry Brigade.”

“Poles fighting alongside Germans. That must be a first. We certainly have united the Alliance…”

The President’s attempt at a weak joke was met by an awkward silence around the table.

Even a fortnight ago, Komarov thought, there would have been guffaws of fawning laughter. Not now, though, as the size of the forces building up on their border and the magnitude of their potential military miscalculation began to sink in.