War with Russia

“Afraid so,” replied Wilson. “He’s surrounded by acolytes to whom the use of force, especially any mention of ‘boots on the ground,’ is anathema at the best of times. But faced with an Article Five crisis, Number Ten has gone into meltdown. The prospect of telling the British people that our soldiers may have to fight and die to defend the Latvians is too much for him. Word has it that it was discussed in Cabinet this morning and his considered contribution was that Britain spends far too much money on Latvia—stag-party beer money—and the Brits who spend it are unlikely to be the sort who would vote for him anyway. His bag carriers thought that was hilarious. On top of that, as we saw with the decision to launch air strikes over Syria, the PM refuses to do anything involving guns and body-bags without a clear House of Commons majority.”

“But he’s got a majority,” McKinlay said.

“Sure, but it’s pretty narrow, notwithstanding that Labour have gone into meltdown since Corbyn was elected leader. The problem is that many of the Tory backbenchers, especially the younger generation, aren’t prepared to back Article Five. All that stuff about Chamberlain in 1938, and why should our boys fight and, if necessary, die for a faraway country about which they know little and care even less.”

“Look how that ended up,” McKinlay muttered, as much to himself as to Wilson. This was no longer the country he had joined the Royal Marines to serve.

“Would a call from Washington help?” he asked finally.

“Maybe. But it would have to come from the White House.”

“Leave it with me. I’ll keep you posted, Tony. Speak to you soon. And stay well.”

Then he called to Swinton in the next door office. “Jamie, can you get SACEUR on the line? I need to speak to him before he gets to the White House.”

2200 hours, Thursday, May 18, 2017

Central European Time 1600 hours, Eastern Standard Time, The White House, Washington, D.C.

“SO, MADAM PRESIDENT,” concluded MacWhite, “we’re as certain as we can be that the Russians are on the point of moving into Latvia. And very likely Estonia and Lithuania, too.”

Bear Smythson paused from his note taking—one of his more menial, but nevertheless important jobs as Executive Assistant to Abe MacWhite, the US National Security Adviser—and looked around the walls of the Situation Room, known among the National Security Council staff as the “woodshed.” It had been refurbished fairly recently and the original wooden paneling had been removed, because the acoustics made it hard to hear for those listening in via video or telephone. Certainly the new “whisper wall” fabric lining the walls was having its effect. The silence was oppressive, as the president of the most powerful nation on earth digested the facts that had just been briefed to her. Nobody moved.

President Lynn Turner Dillon looked around the table. Concentrated in that single room, where so many decisions about war and peace had been made, were the generals and admirals who controlled America’s war machine. She looked at MacWhite, the former Special Forces general, at Admiral Howard, the SACEUR, and at the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. All were men who had seen the brutality of combat and its consequences. These were not the warmongers of popular fiction. To a man, they found the reality of war abhorrent. But these were also men who knew that there are times when countries need to fight to protect themselves and their values.

She made up her mind, then spoke slowly and deliberately, looking each man in the eye in turn. “There is no question that what the Russians are conducting is an attack on Latvia. Latvia is a NATO member, an ally of America, and a country America has always stood by and recognized, even when others accepted its occupation by the Soviet Union. The propaganda barrage, the orchestration of yesterday’s riot and the cyber-attack you’ve just updated me on, are all part of this attack. The President is set on bringing Latvia back under Russia. We’ve got to stop him. Set up a call to him as soon as possible, please. Meanwhile, we should be prepared to use the military.”

She turned to MacWhite, the rock on whom she increasingly relied for his judgment. “What do you recommend, Abe?”

MacWhite turned a pencil over in his hands. “Ma’am, I think you’re right. You need to talk to the President in Moscow. Make sure that we are not misreading this in some way. We’ll get that set up now.”

Bear caught the eye of one of the NSC staffers, who left the room to set up the call.