War with Russia

Komarov saw the Foreign Minister stiffen beside the President. “Vladimir Vladimirovitch, so much for your policy of divide and rule that you ordered me to pursue among the NATO allies,” he said, with the smooth sarcasm of a diplomat presented with the most egregious example of military incompetence. “It would be difficult to think of anything more likely to get Germany to sign up to Article Five than sinking one of her naval vessels. And to compound it, sinking a British ship as well is almost unbelievable. At one stroke the all-conquering Russian Air Force has effectively united NATO against us. Congratulations, Mikhail Nikolayevich.” He looked derisively at the Chief of the Russian General Staff, who glared back at him in fury.

The President turned to Gareyev in a rage. “I want a full report on why this happened on my desk tonight. And, if this is true, the Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force is not only relieved of his command, but he’s to be in Lefortovo Prison within the next hour. Is that clear?”

Gareyev wanted to point out that at 20,000 feet identification was not straightforward, but he also knew that the FSB had told the Air Force that the NATO ships were due in port, so he could do nothing but nod his head. “It will be done, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” he said.

“Right.” The President turned abruptly and walked toward the War Cabinet room. “Enough about Latvia and the Air Force’s efforts to unite NATO against me. I want an update on the other Baltic states and likely reactions from the Americans and NATO.”

Once seated at the cabinet table, a series of staff officers briefed the President in detail on the success of operations in Estonia and Lithuania, both now effectively under Russian control after a series of lightning strikes by airborne forces, now being backed up by amphibious landings by the Baltic Fleet on the coast of Estonia.

“And now, Viktor Anatolyevich,” said the President, turning to his deputy, “it’s over to you to reintegrate them into Russia. I want a referendum held in each country within ten days. The question you put to them is simple: do they, or do they not, want to become part of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, their armed forces are to be disbanded. Russian speakers must, of course, stay and are to be the basis of their new security forces. Any—and that includes Russian speakers—not prepared to swear the oath of allegiance to me as President are to be deported to the gulags.”

“With pleasure, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” the urbane former Ambassador to NATO replied with a smirk. “The result will be a foregone conclusion. As Comrade Stalin used to say: ‘It’s not the voting that counts. It’s the counting that counts.’”

The President ignored the attempt at humor and turned to Merkulov, head of the intelligence service, the FSB. “What should we expect America’s next move to be, Lavrentiy Pavlovich?”

Komarov could see Merkulov choose his words with care. After all, he was known for owing his survival and promotion both in the KGB and the FSB to his well-judged ability to think ahead and, above all, to avoid boxing himself into a corner.

“With their military losses in Latvia, America is now probably locked in, like it or not, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” he replied. “The new President, Turner Dillon, is a relatively unknown quantity, but the character picture we have been building up suggests she will be cautious about committing herself any further. Although she was very critical about Obama’s foreign policy weakness during the election campaign, the reality is that America has never regained the face lost when Obama stepped back from his so-called red line over chemical weapons in Syria, or when you checkmated him, again in Syria two years ago, by attacking American-backed rebel forces and so helped stabilize Assad’s position. That was the moment for America to show its resolve and face us down. They did nothing except complain. However, as with any unknown quantity, and as we both know from harsh experience, Vladimir Vladimirovich, Dillon may yet surprise us. She already has with her decision to send those troops to Latvia. A foolish decision, but an unexpected one nevertheless. And one, I fear, with consequences…”

The President looked troubled, but Komarov knew he was too reliant on Merkulov’s unwavering loyalty, and that of his feared FSB, to press him further. “What about NATO… Now that we’ve sunk two NATO ships?”