When China Rules the World

This brings us next to East Asia. There is clear evidence, as discussed in the last chapter, of a fairly dramatic shift in the balance of power in what is now the most important economic region in the world, East Asia having overtaken both North America and Europe. Nothing decisive has happened but nonetheless China has palpably strengthened its position, with even established US allies like Singapore and the Philippines now hedging and seeking a closer accommodation with China. Only two countries, in fact, have tried to resist being drawn closer to China – Japan and Taiwan, though both have become deeply involved with China economically. Furthermore, it is clear that, notwithstanding the presence of a large number of its troops, the American position on the Korean Peninsula has weakened as South Korea has moved much closer to China and the US has been forced to depend on China playing the role of honest broker in defusing the nuclear crisis in the North. The wider significance of these developments in terms of Sino- US relations is that East Asia has, ever since the last war, been a predominantly American sphere of influence, threatened only by a relatively isolated China during the Maoist period and, of course, the US’s defeat in the Vietnam War. This can no longer be presumed to be the case. East Asia is now effectively bipolar. The fact that the US ’s position in East Asia has declined could well have knock-on effects for its commitment to Taiwan, potentially even undermining it. [1185] The waning of American influence in East Asia also has implications for its position globally, on the one hand serving to embolden China and on the other acting as a marker and signal for other nations. As yet, there is little sign of any clear American response to these trends, although the Obama administration seems to recognize their importance. The US has been hugely distracted by its entanglement in the Middle East and, as a consequence, has neglected its position in East Asia. [1186]

China, meanwhile, has slowly begun to emerge as an alternative model to the United States, a view which the Chinese have cautiously promoted, though in a manner very different from the kind of systemic competition that characterized the Cold War. The growing American emphasis on hard power, especially since 2003, has made it increasingly unpopular in the world and created a vacuum which China in a small way has started to fill, not least with its embrace of multilateralism and its emphasis on its peaceful rise. [1187] China ’s pitch is essentially to the developing rather than the developed world, with its offer of no-strings-attached aid and infrastructural assistance, its respect for sovereignty, its emphasis on a strong state, its opposition to superpower domination and its championing of a level playing field. As a package these have a powerful resonance with developing countries. [1188] The main plank of American soft power is the stress placed on the importance of democracy within nation-states: China, by way of contrast, emphasises democracy between nation-states – most notably in terms of respect for sovereignty – and democracy in the world system. [1189] China ’s criticism of the Western-dominated international system and its governing institutions strikes a strong chord with the developing world at a time when these institutions are widely recognized to be unrepresentative and seriously flawed. Most powerfully of all, China can offer its own experience of growth as an example and model for other developing countries to consider and learn from, something that the United States, as the doyen of developed countries, cannot. East Asia apart, there has been a significant shift of power and sentiment away from the United States and towards China in Africa and Latin America. This should not be exaggerated – it remains embryonic – but it is, nonetheless, significant. Meanwhile the spectacular collapse of the neo-liberal model in the financial meltdown has seriously undermined the wider appeal of the United States, notwithstanding the exhilarating and uplifting effect of Barack Obama’s election as president. And the fact, more generally, that the American-run international economic system has been plunged into such turmoil as a result of a crisis which had its origins in the United States has served further to accentuate the loss of American power and prestige. [1190]