Winter of the World

‘That’s why I wanted to talk to you, Gus. If we want our plan implemented, we need to be prepared. We have to get FDR and Churchill to commit to it as part of their statement.’

Gus said: ‘We both know that the President is in favour, theoretically, but he’s nervous about public opinion.’

An aide came in and passed a note to Bexforth, who read it and said: ‘Oh! My goodness.’

Welles said testily: ‘What is it?’

‘The Japanese Imperial Council met last week, as you know,’ Bexforth said. ‘We have some intelligence on their deliberations.’

He was being vague about the source of information, but Greg knew what he meant. The Signal Intelligence Unit of the US Army was able to intercept and decode wireless messages from the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo to its embassies abroad. The data from these decrypts was codenamed MAGIC. Greg knew about this, even though he was not supposed to – in fact, there would have been a hell of a stink if the army found out he was in on the secret.

‘The Japanese discussed extending their empire,’ Bexforth went on. They had already annexed the vast region of Manchuria, Greg knew, and had moved troops into much of the rest of China. ‘They do not favour the option of westward expansion, into Siberia, which would mean war with the Soviet Union.’

‘That’s good!’ said Welles. ‘It means the Russians can concentrate on fighting the Germans.’

‘Yes, sir. But the Japs are planning instead to extend southwards, by taking full control of Indochina, then the Dutch East Indies.’

Greg was shocked. This was hot news – and he was among the first to hear it.

Welles was indignant. ‘Why, that’s nothing less than an imperialist war!’

Gus interposed: ‘Technically, Sumner, it’s not war. The Japanese already have some troops in Indochina, with formal permission from the incumbent colonial power, France, as represented by the Vichy government.’

‘Puppets of the Nazis!’

‘I did say “technically”. And the Dutch East Indies are theoretically ruled by the Netherlands, which is now occupied by the Germans, who are perfectly happy for their Japanese allies to take over a Dutch colony.’

‘That’s a quibble.’

‘It’s a quibble that others will raise with us – the Japanese ambassador, for one.’

‘You’re right, Gus, and thanks for forewarning me.’

Greg was alert for an opportunity to make a contribution to the discussion. He wanted above all else to impress the senior men around him. But they all knew so much more than he did.

Welles said: ‘What are the Japanese after, anyway?’

Gus said: ‘Oil, rubber and tin. They’re securing their access to natural resources. It’s hardly surprising, since we keep interfering with their supplies.’ The United States had embargoed exports of materials such as oil and scrap iron to Japan, in a failed attempt to discourage the Japanese from taking over ever larger tracts of Asia.

Welles said irritably: ‘Our embargoes have never been applied very effectively.’

‘No, but the threat is obviously sufficient to panic the Japanese, who have almost no natural resources of their own.’

‘Clearly we need to take more effective measures,’ Welles snapped. ‘The Japanese have a lot of money in American banks. Can we freeze their assets?’

The officials around the room looked disapproving. This was a radical idea. After a moment Bexforth said: ‘I guess we could. That would be more effective than any embargoes. They would be unable to buy oil or any other raw materials here in the States because they couldn’t pay for them.’

Gus Dewar said: ‘The Secretary of State will be concerned, as usual, to avoid any action that might lead to war.’

He was right. Cordell Hull was cautious to the point of timidity, and frequently clashed with his more aggressive deputy, Welles.

‘Mr Hull has always followed that course, and very wisely,’ said Welles. They all knew he was insincere, but etiquette required it. ‘However, the United States must walk tall on the international stage. We’re prudent, not cowardly. I’m going to put this idea of an asset freeze to the President.’

Greg was awestruck. This was what power meant. In a heartbeat, Welles could propose something that would rock an entire nation.

Gus Dewar frowned. ‘Without imported oil, the Japanese economy will grind to a halt, and their military will be powerless.’

‘Which is good!’ said Welles.

‘Is it? What do you imagine Japan’s military government will do, faced with such a catastrophe?’

Welles did not much like to be challenged. He said: ‘Why don’t you tell me, Senator?’

‘I don’t know. But I think we should have an answer before we take the action. Desperate men are dangerous. And I do know that the United States is not ready to go to war against Japan. Our navy isn’t ready and our air force isn’t ready.’

Greg saw his chance to speak and took it. ‘Mr Undersecretary, sir, it may help you to know that public opinion favours war with Japan, rather than appeasement, by a factor of two to one.’

‘Good point, Greg, thank you. Americans don’t want to let Japan get away with murder.’