Winter of the World

‘Like all navies, the Japanese have many different codes, using the simplest for less secret signals, such as weather reports, and saving the complex ones for the most highly sensitive messages,’ Vandermeier said. ‘For example, call signs identifying the sender of a message and its destination are in a primitive cipher, even when the text itself is in a high-grade cipher. They recently changed the code for call signs, but we cracked the new one in a few days.’

‘Very impressive,’ said Gus.

‘We can also figure out where the signal originated, by triangulation. Given locations and the call signs, we can build up a pretty good picture of where most of the ships of the Japanese navy are, even if we can’t read the messages.’

‘So we know where they are, and what direction they’re taking, but not what their orders are,’ said Gus.

‘Frequently, yes.’

‘But if they wanted to hide from us, all they would have to do is impose radio silence.’

‘True,’ said Vandermeier. ‘If they go quiet, this whole operation becomes useless, and we are well and truly fucked up the ass.’

A man in a smoking jacket and carpet slippers approached, and Vandermeier introduced the head of the unit. ‘Commander Rochefort is fluent in Japanese, as well as being a master cryptanalyst,’ Vandermeier said.

‘We were making good progress decrypting the main Japanese cipher until a few days ago,’ Rochefort said. ‘Then the bastards changed it and undid all our work.’

Gus said: ‘Captain Vandermeier was telling me you can learn a lot without actually reading the messages.’

‘Yes.’ Rochefort pointed to a wall chart. ‘Right now, most of the Japanese fleet has left home waters and is heading south.’

‘Ominous.’

‘It sure is. But tell me, Senator, what’s your reading of Japanese intentions?’

‘I believe they will declare war on the United States. Our oil embargo is really hurting them. The British and the Dutch are refusing to supply them, and right now they’re trying to ship it from South America. They can’t survive like this indefinitely.’

Vandermeier said: ‘But what would they achieve by attacking us? A little country such as Japan can’t invade the USA!’

Gus said: ‘Great Britain is a little country, but they achieved world domination just by ruling the seas. The Japanese don’t have to conquer America, they just need to defeat us in a naval war, so that they can control the Pacific, and no one can stop them trading.’

‘So, in your opinion, what might they be doing, heading south?’

‘Their likeliest target has to be the Philippines.’

Rochefort nodded agreement. ‘We’ve already reinforced our base there. But one thing bothers me: the commander of the Japanese aircraft carrier fleet hasn’t received any signals for several days.’

Gus frowned. ‘Radio silence. Has that ever happened before?’

‘Yes. Aircraft carriers go quiet when they return to home waters. So we assume that’s the explanation this time.’

Gus nodded. ‘It sounds reasonable.’

‘Yes,’ said Rochefort. ‘I just wish I could be sure.’

(iii)

The Christmas lights were ablaze on Fort Street in Honolulu. It was Saturday night, 6 December, and the street was thronged with sailors in white tropical uniform, each with a round white cap and a crossed black scarf, all out for a good time.

The Dewar family strolled along enjoying the atmosphere, Rosa on Chuck’s arm and Gus and Woody on either side of Joanne.

Woody had patched up his quarrel with his fiancée. He apologized for making wrong assumptions about what Joanne expected in their marriage. Joanne admitted she had flown off the handle. Nothing was truly resolved, but it was enough of a rapprochement for them to tear off their clothes and jump into bed.

Afterwards, the quarrel seemed less important, and nothing really mattered except how much they loved each other. Then they vowed that in future they would discuss such agreements in a loving and tolerant way. As they got dressed Woody felt that they had passed a milestone. They had had an acrimonious quarrel about a serious difference of view, but they had survived it. It could even be a good sign.

Now they were heading out for dinner, Woody carrying his camera, snapping photos of the scene as they walked along. Before they had gone far Chuck stopped and introduced another sailor. ‘This is my pal, Eddie Parry. Eddie, meet Senator Dewar, Mrs Dewar, my brother Woody, and Woody’s fiancée, Miss Joanne Rouzrokh.’

Rosa said: ‘I’m pleased to meet you, Eddie. Chuck has mentioned you several times in his letters home. Won’t you join us for dinner? We’re only going to eat Chinese.’

Woody was surprised. It was not like his mother to invite a stranger to a family meal.

Eddie said: ‘Thank you, ma’am. I’d be honoured.’ He had a southern accent.