Заблуждения толпы

335. См.: Francis D. Nichol, The Midnight Cry! (Takoma Park, Washington, DC: Review and Herald Publishing Association), 337–426; и Ruth Alden Doan, The Miller Heresy, Millerism, and American Culture (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1987), p. 60–61, 158–174; также Dick, William Miller and the Advent Crisis 1831–1844, p. 123–130. Самое содержательное и яркое описание практик миллеритов, в том числе «балахонов вознесения»: Cross, p. 305–306.

336. См.: The Signs of the Times Vol. VI, No. 17 (December 13, 1843): p. 144 (courtesy of Adventist Digital Library); и Dick, William Miller and the Advent Crisis 1831–1844, p, 121.

337. См.: Knight, p. 218–219.

338. См.: Louis Boutelle, Sketch of the Life and Religious Experience of Eld. Louis Boutelle (Boston: Advent Christian Publication Society, 1891), p. 67–68.

339. См.: William Lloyd Garrison, The Letters of William Lloyd Garrison, Walter M. Merrill, Ed. (Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1973), 111:137; и Ira V. Brown, “The Millerites and the Boston Press,” The New England Quarterly Vol. 16, No. 4 (December 1943): p. 599.

340. Cм.: Dick, William Miller and the Advent Crisis 1831–1844, p. 161.

341. См.: Rowe, Thunder and Trumpets, p. 141–147.

342. См.: Knight, p. 219–241.

343. См.: Jonathan M. Butler and Ronald L. Numbers, Introduction, in Ronald L. Numbers and Jonathan M. Butler, Eds., The Disappointed (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 1987), xv; и Doan, p. 203–204.

344. О мнении Фестингера по поводу миллеритов: Festinger et al., When Prophecy Fails, p. 11–23.

345. См.: Ernest Sandeen, The Roots of Fundamentalism (Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Book House, 1970), p. 54–55.

Глава 6

346. См.: Bagehot, p. 158.

347. См.: Martin Gilbert, Winston S. Churchill (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1977), V: p. 333–351, quote 350.

348. См.: Liaquat Ahamed, Lords of Finance (New York: Penguin, 2009), p. 231.

349. См.: H. Clark Johnson, Gold, France, and the Great Depression, 1919–1932 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1997), p. 141; также см. Federal Reserve Bulletin, April 1926, p. 270–271.

350. Cм.: Benjamin M. Blau et al., “Gambling Preferences, Options Markets, and Volatility,” Journal of Quantitative and Financial Analysis Vol. 51, No. 2 (April 2016): p. 515–540.

351. См.: Hyman Minksy, “The financial-instability hypothesis: capitalist processes and the behavior of the economy,” in Charles P. Kindleberger and Jean-Pierre Laffargue, Eds., Financial crises (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982), p. 13–39.

352. См.: William J. Bernstein, The Birth of Plenty, p. 101–106.

353. Чрезвычайно яркое описание схемы: Frederick Lewis Allen, The Lords of Creation (Chicago: Quadrangle Paperbacks, 1966), p. 305–306.

354. См.: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/theme/?_escaped_fragment_=32#! 32, дата обращения 30.03.2016.

355. См.: Minsky, p. 13–39.

356. См.: Floris Heukelom, “Measurement and Decision Making at the University of Michigan in the 1950s and 1960s,” Nijmegen Center for Economics, Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, 2009, http://www.ru.nF publish/pages/516298/nice_09102.pdf, дата обращения 18.07.2016.

357. См.: Malcolm Gladwell, David and Goliath (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2013), p. 103.

358. См.: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013), p. 4–7.

359. См.: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science Vol. 185, No. 4157 (September 27, 1974), p. 1124.

360. Там же, 1130.

361. Чаще всего ссылаются на статью Канемана и Тверски «Суждение при неопределенности». Также см. работы этих авторов: “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology Vol. 5 (1973): p. 207–232; “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin Vol. 76, No. 2 (1971): p. 105–110; “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness,” Cognitive Psychology Vol. 3 (1972): p. 430–454; “On the Psychology of Prediction,” Psychological Review Vol. 80, No. 4 (July 1973): p. 237–251; “On the study of statistical intuitions,” Cognition Vol. 11 (1982): p. 123–141; and “Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures,” Advances in Decision Technology, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, 1977.

362. О жертвах применения огнестрельного оружия см.: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm; о жертвах аварий: https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/motor-vehicle-safety/; о наркотиках: https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/.

363. С 2005 по 2019 год террористы убили 250 израильтян, то есть приблизительно пятнадцать человек в год, а только в 2018 году в дорожных авариях погибло 315 человек (см.: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/comprehensive-listing-of-terrorism-victims-in-israel и https://www.timesofisrael.com/cautious-optimism-as-annual-road-deaths-drop-for – the-first-time-in‐5-years/).