Злой рок. Политика катастроф

Nicholas Kumleben, R. Bhopal, T. Czypionka, L. Gruer, R. Kock, Justin Stebbing, and F. L. Stigler, «Test, Test, Test for COVID-19 Antibodies: The Importance of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Powers», Public Health 185 (August 2020), pp. 88–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.06.006.

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Albert-László Barabási, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), chap. 10.

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За эту точку зрения я благодарен Сесилии Масколо из Кембриджского университета.

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Matthew J. Ferrari et al., «Network Frailty and the Geometry of Herd Immunity», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1602 (November 7, 2006), pp. 2743–2748, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.

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Tom Britton, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman, «The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level», Quantitative Biology: Populations and Evolution, May 8, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085. См. также: Ricardo Aguas et al., «Herd Immunity Thresholds for SARS-CoV2 Estimated from Unfolding Epidemics», MedRxiv, July 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762.

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Charles Musselwhite, Erel Avineri, and Yusak Susilo, «Editorial JTH 16-The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and Its Implications for Transport and Health», Journal of Transport & Health 16 (March 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100853.

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Michael Laris, «Scientists Know Ways to Help Stop Viruses from Spreading on Airplanes. They’re Too Late for This Pandemic», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-waystocombat-virusesonairplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.

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Министерство торговли США, Управление международной торговли, Национальное бюро путешествий и туризма.

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«Historical Flight Status», FlightStats by Cerium, https://www.flightstats.com/v2/historical-flight/subscribe.

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Мой спор на эту тему с Дэниелом Беллом см.: Daniel A. Bell, «Did the Chinese Government Deliberately Export COVID-19 to the Rest of the World?» Danielabell.com, April 21, 2020, https://danielabell.com/2020/04/21/did-the-chinese-government-deliberately-export-covid19tothe-restofthe-world/; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: An Update», Niallferguson.com, April 21, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinpinganupdate; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: Another Update», Niallferguson.com, May 26, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinping-another-update.

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Matteo Chinazzi et al., «The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak», MedRxiv, February 11, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261.

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Steve Eder et al., «430,000 People Have Traveled from China to U. S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced», New York Times, April 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html.

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