Думай «почему?». Причина и следствие как ключ к мышлению

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Глава 1. Лестница причинности

Annotated Bibliography

A technical account of the distinctions between the three levels of the Ladder of Causation can be found in Chapter 1 of Pearl (2000).

Our comparisons between the Ladder of Causation and human cognitive development were inspired by Harari (2015) and by the recent findings by Kind et al. (2014). Kind’s article contains details about the Lion Man and the site where it was found. Related research on the development of causal understanding in babies can be found in Weisberg and Gopnik (2013).

The Turing test was first proposed as an imitation game in 1950 (Turing, 1950). Searle’s “Chinese Room” argument appeared in Searle (1980) and has been widely discussed in the years since. See Russell and Norvig (2003); Preston and Bishop (2002); Pinker (1997).

The use of model modification to represent intervention has its conceptual roots with the economist Trygve Haavelmo (1943); see Pearl (2015) for a detailed account. Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (1993) gave it a graphical representation in terms of arrow deletion. Balke and Pearl (1994a, 1994b) extended it to simulate counterfactual reasoning, as demonstrated in the firing squad example.

A comprehensive summary of probabilistic causality is given in Hitchcock (2016). Key ideas can be found in Reichenbach (1956); Suppes (1970); Cartwright (1983); Spohn (2012). My analyses of probabilistic causality and probability raising are presented in Pearl (2000; 2009, Section 7.5; 2011).

References

Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994a). Counterfactual probabilities: Computational methods, bounds, and applications. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 10 (R. L. de Mantaras and D. Poole, eds.). Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 46–54.

Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994b). Probabilistic evaluation of counterfactual queries. In Proceedings of the Twelfth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, vol. 1. MIT Press, Menlo Park, CA, 230–237.

Cartwright, N. (1983). How the Laws of Physics Lie. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.

Haavelmo, T. (1943). The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations. Econometrica 11: 1–12. Reprinted in D. F. Hendry and M. S. Morgan (Eds.), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 477–490, 1995.

Harari, Y. N. (2015). Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Harper Collins Publishers, New York, NY.

Hitchcock, C. (2016). Probabilistic causation. In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2016) (E. N. Zalta, ed.). Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford, CA. Available at: https://stanford.library.sydney.edu.au/archives/win2016/entries/causation-probabilistic. Kind, C.-J., Ebinger-Rist, N., Wolf, S., Beutelspacher, T., and Wehrberger, K. (2014). The smile of the Lion Man. Recent excavations in Stadel cave (Baden-Württemberg, south-western Germany) and the restoration of the famous upper palaeolithic figurine. Quartär 61: 129–145.

Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.

Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.

Pearl, J. (2011). The structural theory of causation. In Causality in the Sciences (P. M. Illari, F. Russo, and J. Williamson, eds.), chap. 33. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 697–727.

Pearl, J. (2015). Trygve Haavelmo and the emergence of causal calculus. Econometric Theory 31: 152–179. Special issue on Haavelmo centennial.

Pinker, S. (1997). How the Mind Works. W. W. Norton and Company, New York, NY.

Preston, J., and Bishop, M. (2002). Views into the Chinese Room: New Essays on Searle and Artificial Intelligence. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.

Reichenbach, H. (1956). The Direction of Time. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.

Russell, S. J., and Norvig, P. (2003). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. 2nd ed. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.

Searle, J. (1980). Minds, brains, and programs. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3: 417–457.

Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., and Scheines, R. (1993). Causation, Prediction, and Search. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.

Spohn, W. (2012). The Laws of Belief: Ranking Theory and Its Philosophical Applications. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Suppes, P. (1970). A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, Netherlands.