Executive Intent

JAPAN: THE MILITARY EXPLOITATION OF SPACE (www.Stratfor.com, July 19, 2009): The Japanese Ministry of Defense’s annual white paper on defense was released July 17, making it explicit-for the first time-that Japan recognizes the need to develop space-based systems specifically for military purposes…

…This will further solidify the JSDF as one of the most technologically advanced and capable military forces in the world, and it will give it the tools to better monitor and secure Japan ’s global interests. But it will not happen in a vacuum. Japan ’s space program, combined with a concerted-and often clandestine-Chinese effort, could mean that a space race is heating up in East Asia.

CHINA DELIVERS FRIGATE TO PAKISTAN (www.Stratfor.com, July 30, 2009): China delivered the first of four F-22P frigates to Pakistan, Dawn News reported July 30, citing a Pakistani naval spokesman. Each warship will carry a helicopter, surface-to-surface missiles, and surface-to-air missiles.

CHINA LAUNCHES LONG-RANGE WAR GAMES (Associated Press, August 12, 2009): Beijing – China ’s military launched war games Tuesday aimed at deploying forces at long distances…

The exercises will send fifty thousand armored troops-the People’s Liberation Army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise”-to unfamiliar areas far from their bases for two months of live-fire drills, state media reported.

…“In the unprecedented exercise, one of the PLA’s major objectives will be to improve its capacity of long-range projection,” the official Xinhua News Agency said. It said the war games constituted the army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise…”

The 2.3-million-member PLA is the world’s largest standing military.

…The PLA has undergone a rapid upgrade in recent years in both equipment and doctrine. Two decades of almost annual double-digit increases in military spending have allowed the addition of cutting-edge fighter jets, nuclear submarines, and hundreds of ballistic missiles… China has announced a 14.9 percent rise in military spending in its 2009 budget, to 480.6 billion yuan (US$70.3 billion).

…The military has also taken steps to emerge from its traditional veil of secrecy and engage with other nations, most strikingly in sending ships to join the international antipiracy flotilla off the coast of Somalia this year.

COMMENTARY: PAKISTAN NUKE THEFTS FOILED (UPI, August 12, 2009): Washington -… Pakistan ’s secret nuclear storage sites are known to Islamist extremists and have been attacked at least three times over the last two years, according to two recent reputable reports.

…The first such attack against the nuclear-missile storage facility was on November 1, 2007, at Sargodha; the second, by a suicide bomber, occurred December 10, 2007, against Pakistan’s nuclear air base at Kamra; and the third and most alarming was launched August 20, 2008, by several suicide bombers who blew up key entry points to a nuclear-weapons complex at the Wah cantonment, long believed to be one of Pakistan’s main nuclear-weapons assembly points, where warheads and launchers come together in a national emergency…

…While not denying the three incidents, Pakistan has said repeatedly that its nuclear weapons are fully secured and there is no chance of them falling into the hands of Islamist extremists…

CHINA: U.S. SHOULD STOP MILITARY SURVEILLANCE OFF COAST (www.Stratfor.com, August 28, 2009): The Chinese Defense Ministry said August 28 that “the root cause of problems between the navies and air forces” of China and the United States is the “constant” U.S. military surveillance off China ’s coast, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a ministry statement. The ministry said that to avoid Chinese-U.S. maritime incidents, the United States should “decrease and eventually stop” its surveillance and survey operations. The spokeswoman for the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Susan Stevenson, said the United States “exercises its freedom of navigation of the seas under international law, while putting emphasis on avoiding any unwanted incidents.”

U.S., AUSTRALIA: MILITARIES TO ASK CHINA TO JOIN EXERCISES (www.Stratfor.com, September 2, 2009):…U.S. Pacific Command chief Admiral Timothy Keating and Australian Defense Force leader Angus Houston met in Sydney on September 2 and agreed to ask China to hold exercises and develop military ties “at the earliest opportunity.” The United States and Australia want to understand China ’s intentions, as both countries are concerned that China ’s military buildup might have purposes other than defense.

RUSSIA TO REVAMP AIR-SPACE DEFENSES (RIA Novosti, August 11, 2009): Moscow – Russia will create a new generation of air and space defenses to counter any strikes against its territory due to a potential foreign threat, the air force commander said on Tuesday.