Executive Intent

“Foreign countries, particularly the United States, will be able to deliver coordinated high-precision strikes from air and space against any target on the whole territory of Russia,” Colonel General Alexander Zelin said, referring to the potential for new hypersonic and space-based offensive weapons.

“That is why the main goal of the development of the Russian air force is to create a new branch of the armed forces, which would form the core of the country’s air and space defenses to provide a reliable deterrent during peacetime, and repel any military aggression with the use of conventional and nuclear arsenals in a time of war,” the general said.

…The Soviet-era MiG-31 Foxhound supersonic interceptor aircraft will most likely be used as part of the new air-space defense network, as was intended when it was designed. “We are upgrading this system to be able to accomplish the same [air-space defense] tasks,” Zelin said. According to some sources, Russia has over 280 MiG-31 aircraft in active service and about 100 aircraft in reserve.

CHINA, RUSSIA: SHIPS TO CONDUCT JOINT EXERCISES OFF SOMALI COAST (www.Stratfor.com, September 17, 2009): Chinese and Russian ships, on antipiracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, plan to hold joint exercises, called “Blue Peace Shield 2009,” on September 18, testing communications links, simulating operations to identify vessels, and coordinating resupply methods, the Associated Press reported September 17.

CHINA SAYS MILITARY ARSENAL COMPARABLE WITH WEST (Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, September 21, 2009): Beijing-China’s military now possesses most of the sophisticated weapon systems found in the arsenals of developed Western nations, the country’s defense minister said in comments published Monday.

Many of China ’s systems, including the J-10 fighter jet, latest-generation tanks, navy destroyers, and cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles, match or are close to matching the capabilities of those in the West, Liang Guanglie said in a rare interview posted on the ministry’s Web site. “This is an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the level of our military’s modernization and the huge change in our country’s technological strength,” Liang said.

… China ’s improved capabilities are also seen as emboldening the country’s military and civilian leaders in using force to back up political and territorial claims. Chinese ships have repeatedly harassed U.S. Navy surveillance vessels collecting intelligence off China ’s southeastern coast, while Chinese submarines have aggressively pursued aircraft-carrier battle groups.

…Analysts say the odds of conflict with the United States, Japan, and other regional militaries is likely to increase as China further beefs up its arsenal…

RUSSIA: PRESIDENT PROMISES REBUILT NAVY IN 10 YEARS (www.Stratfor.com, September 28, 2009): Russian president Dmitri Medvedev said during a meeting with military personnel that Russia will rebuild its naval fleet within ten years, RIA Novosti reported September 28…

CHINA: BEIJING TO BUILD LARGE DESTROYERS (www.Stratfor.com, October 9, 2009): Beijing plans to build a new generation of large destroyers as part of its effort to develop a modern blue-water navy, South China Morning Press reported October 9. The destroyers will displace more than ten thousand tons, according to a report by the China Shipbuilding Information Center -an institute under the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest state-owned shipbuilder in China. According to the report, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hopes the new destroyers-that will feature fully developed stealth technology-will close the gap in combat capability between the Chinese and Western navies.

U.S.: ADMIRAL CONCERNED ABOUT CHINA MILITARY BUILDUP (www.Stratfor.com, October 30, 2009): U.S. Rear Admiral Kevin Donegan said the United States wants to ensure that China’s unprecedented rate of military expansion doesn’t destabilize the region as China’s spending was up almost 15 percent in 2009, the Associated Press reported October 30…Donegan, commander of the USS George Washington, acknowledged the possibility of a Chinese aircraft carrier, stating concerns about antiaccess weapons…

CHINA: PAKISTAN TO BUY J-10 FIGHTERS-PAKISTANI OFFICIALS (www.Stratfor.com, November 10, 2009): China agreed to sell Pakistan two squadrons of J-10 fighters for as much as $1.4 billion, the Financial Times reported November 10, citing Pakistani and Western officials. A Pakistani official said more sales may follow, but denied that a deal had been made to buy up to 150 fighters. The Pakistani air force expects to buy at least 250 JF-17 Thunder fighters in the next four to five years. A Western official in Islamabad said Iran and Middle Eastern countries can find Western-like technology in China purchases; he added that Pakistan ’s purchase is a test case for the region.

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