Позитивные изменения. Том 2, № 1 (2022). Positive changes. Volume 2, Issue 1 (2022)

• Depth: the degree of change experienced by the stakeholder (e.g. how much the income of project participants has increased).

• Duration: the period of time over which the stakeholder experiences the final outcome (e.g., the length of time over which there is an increase in income).

• Volatility: the extent to which intermediate and final outcomes vary over time (e.g. The variation in employment and income from year to year).

Source: GIIN, "Methodology for Standardizing and Comparing Impact Performance".

Investors should monitor the full scale of positive and negative outcomes arising both directly from investing in the activities, products and services of the investee and indirectly through the activities of the various stakeholders affected by the investee.

GIIN recommends using the IRIS+ core metrics set launched in May 2019 for evaluation purposes. They are designed to research each of the described types of data: scale, depth, duration and volatility, taking into account the positive / negative and expected / side effects of certain investments. In addition, IRIS+ metrics include indicators that reflect stockpiles and flows, as described earlier.

2.4. THE EVIDENCE BASE

The evidence base should include field studies and scientific papers that are matched to impact outcomes or intervention types and have some level of methodological rigour.

The GIIN methodology relies on the IRIS+ database. This database includes a broad set of resources: studies, impact assessments, experimental data and scientific papers that are mapped to outcomes linked to IRIS+ strategic objectives. The IRIS+ standards describe how evidence is collected, interpreted and evaluated. They also describe the extent to which this evidence meets academically recognized levels of rigour to support the link between investments and positive outcomes.

2.5. SOCIAL OR ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE THRESHOLDS

Assessing the progress of impact outcomes builds on the already familiar concept of "stocks and flows”.

The table 6 provides a comprehensive list of strategies suitable for comparing impact outcomes against some kind of baseline or threshold level of performance.

STEP 3. CONDUCTING ANALYSIS

The GIIN analytical methodology was developed based on a desk review of existing guidance and evidence, as well as individual and group discussions with a range of stakeholders, including academics, M&E specialists, impact investors and service providers in the impact investing ecosystem. GIIN proposes to divide impact analysis into the following components: normalization, outcome evaluation and outcome clustering.

3.1. NORMALIZATION

Normalization is the mathematical process of adjusting values measured at different scales to obtain a comparable scale. It unlocks the analytical potential of a particular data set. In order to normalize the impact at the level of the investee (section 2.3) in order to assess performance at the level of the investment, two critical factors that reflect the investment context (section 2.1) need to be considered: proportionality and time.

Proportionality is the relationship between the amount of investment and the size of the investee. Obviously, the size of investees varies widely, as do the investments they attract. For example, the proportion of impact attributable to a $1 million investment in a $10 million company should be different from the proportion attributable to a $1 million investment in a $100 million company, despite the same investment size.

The time factor implies that the investment affects the performance of the investee in different ways, depending on the timing of its deployment, the growth or cash flow needs of the investee at that time and the holding period of the assets before exit (through sale or completion of loan repayment). For example, a $1 million investment in a seed or venture-stage company may affect that company's growth trajectory and business development differently than a $1 million investment in an already mature public company. In addition, in the case of debt investments, as the principal and interest on one loan is repaid, this capital is often reinvested in new loans — and so there is a risk of double counting in the overall impact of one investor if timing is not taken into account.

NORMALIZATION ANALYSIS

To make the results at the investee level applicable to any investment and impact strategies in terms of proportionality and timing, they can be translated to the investment level as follows:

Where, in a given reporting period: