The World

In the next eighty years, the population of Europe and east Asia will plummet, that of Nigeria will quadruple to 800 million, making it larger than the entire EU, the second biggest country after India; Congo will triple to 250 million, Egypt will double, Russia will shrink and its Muslims will form a majority. China will halve, its power and economy possibly challenged by the drawbacks of its own autocracy; the US will remain much the same, its ingenious power, however flawed and fragile, likely to endure longer than doomsayers predict. The African giants, Nigeria, Egypt and Congo, could thrive, but it seems more likely that their rulers will be unable to manage or feed their peoples. It is not so much ‘winter is coming’, more like the interminable broiling of a world furnace: climate change – heat and flooding – will make it harder to produce enough food. Already many countries are iPhone and dagger dispolities, realms that barely protect or feed their populations; many states will subside, borders, drawn by imperial powers, will blur into exsurgent warlands – as is already happening in Sahel in perpetual wars for water and resources – or they will succumb to the protection of empire nations, keen to secure their rare earth elements – and old fashioned diamonds, gold and oil. Their peoples will migrate to northern comfort states on a scale unseen since the nomadic invasions. A book of this span has many themes but a key one is that all nations are formed by families in movement: the challenge for the open states is to absorb the migrants they need while being rich enough to sustain the comfort that makes them attractive.

Scale matters in the World Game, but one thing is certain: whoever wins will not win for long. If this history proves anything, it is that the human ability to self-mutilate is almost limitless. ‘In individuals, insanity is rare,’ wrote Nietzsche, ‘but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.’ It is easy to criticize politicians but this interconnected world makes it ever harder to govern: ‘You philosophers … you write on paper,’ Catherine the Great warned. ‘Unfortunate Empress that I am, I write on the susceptible skins of living beings.’

One of the mysteries of such times of crisis is the absence of great leaders, but they are made by their opportunities: ‘We’re little men serving a great cause,’ said Nehru, ‘but because the cause is great something of the greatness falls on us also.’ Kissinger mocked the very idea of greatness: ‘In retrospect, all successful policies seem preordained. Leaders like to claim prescience for what has worked, ascribing planning to what usually starts as a series of improvisations.’ History is driven as much by clowns as by visionaries. ‘History likes to joke,’ said Stalin; ‘sometimes it chooses a fool to drive historical progress.’

‘I’ve seen the future,’ sang Leonard Cohen. ‘It is murder.’ Today’s problems are deep and colossal. Globalization was part of the progressive development that raised living standards, ended most diseases and most famines, but its conveniences have a cost: some are left out of its bounty and some of its bounty requires perilous compromises with enemies. Covid pandemic and Ukrainian war show how fast its food and energy supply lines can fray. Even the miraculous health improvements could be corroding: US life expectancy fell in the three years up to 2020 – for the first time since the Spanish Flu. Microbial resistance to antibiotics could make routine operations much more risky. Covid is probably a dress rehearsal for a graver influenza pandemic.