United Kingdom

In early July May summoned her cabinet to the prime minister’s country retreat, Chequers, determined to forge a consensus on the nuts and bolts of the government’s Brexit plan. Despite forceful opposition by the cabinet’s “hard” Brexiters, by the end of the marathon meeting a consensus seemed to have emerged around May’s “softer” approach, grounded in policies aimed at preserving economic ties with the EU. Just two days later, however, the government’s apparent harmony was disrupted by the resignation of Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis, who complained that May’s plan gave up too much, too easily. The next day Johnson left his post as foreign secretary, writing in his letter of resignation that the dream of Brexit was dying, “suffocated by needless self-doubt.” Suddenly confronted with the possibility of a vote of confidence on her party leadership, May reportedly cautioned Conservatives to line up behind her Brexit plan or run the risk of losing power to a Corbyn-led Labour government.

EU agreement and Parliamentary opposition to May’s Brexit plan

On November 25 the leaders of the EU’s 27 other member countries formally agreed to the terms of a withdrawal deal that May claimed “delivered for the British people” and set the United Kingdom “on course for a prosperous future.” Under the plan Britain was to pay some $50 billion to the EU to satisfy its long-term financial obligations. Britain’s departure from the EU was to come in March 2019, but, according to the agreement, the U.K. would continue to abide by EU rules and regulations until at least December 2020 while negotiations continued on the details of the long-term relationship between the EU and the U.K.

The agreement, which was set to be debated and voted upon by the House of Commons in December, still faced strong opposition in Parliament, not only from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the DUP but also from dozens of Conservatives. At the same time, the call for holding another referendum on Brexit was growing louder, though May remained adamant that the will of the British people had already been expressed. A major sticking point for many of those who opposed the agreement was the so-called Northern Ireland backstop plan. Formulated to help maintain an open border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland after Brexit, the “backstop” stipulated that a legally binding customs arrangement between the EU and Northern Ireland would go into effect if the U.K. and the EU could not reach a long-term agreement by December 2020. Opponents of the backstop argued that it set up the potential for regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K., effectively establishing a customs border down the Irish Sea.

Objections to the Irish backstop and a challenge to May’s leadership

The issue grew more heated in the first week of December after the government was forced to publish in full Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice for the government on the Brexit agreement, which had initially been reported to Parliament in overview only. According to Cox, without agreement between Britain and the EU, the terms of the backstop plan could endure “indefinitely,” with the U.K. legally blocked from terminating the agreement without EU approval. This contentious issue was front and centre as the House of Commons began five days of debate leading up to a vote on the Brexit agreement that was scheduled for December 11. Facing the likelihood of a humiliating rejection of the agreement by the House of Commons, May dramatically interrupted the debate after three days, on December 10, and postponed the vote, pledging to seek new assurances from the EU regarding the backstop. The opposition responded by threatening to hold a vote of confidence and to call for an early election.

A challenge to May’s leadership was quickly mounted within the Conservative Party, and, after more than the required 15 percent of the parliamentary party (48 of 317 MPs) requested a vote on her leadership of the party, a secret ballot vote was held on December 12, 2018. May received the votes of 200 MPs, more than the 159 votes she needed to survive as leader. Although, according to Conservative Party rules, she could not be challenged as leader for another year, it remained to be seen whether May would still face pressure to relinquish power.

Parliamentary rejection of May’s plan, May’s survival of a confidence vote, and the Independent Group of breakaway MPs