Восхождение денег

4 Robert J. Barro and Jose E Ursua, ‘Macroeconomic Crises since 1870’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (forthcoming). См. также: Robert J. Barro, ‘Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century’, Harvard University Working Paper (4.12.2005).

5 Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (2nd edn., New York, 2005)

6 Idem, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London, 2007).

7 Georges Soros, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means, (New York, 2008). Pp. 9iff.

8 Cm.: Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Boston, 1921).

9 John Maynard Keynes, ‘The General Theory of Employment’, Economic Journal, 51, 2 (1937). P. 214.

10 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tver sky, ‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk’, Econometrica, 47, 2 (March 1979). P. 273.

11 Eliezer Yudkowsky, ‘Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks’, in Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (eds.), Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford University Press, 2008). Pp. 91-119. Cm. также: Michael J. Mauboussin, More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (New York/Chichester, 2006).

12 Mark Buchanan, The Social Atom: Why the Rich Get Richer, Cheaters Get Caught, and Your Neighbor Usually Looks Like You (New York, 2007). P. 54.

13 Хорошее введение в тему: Andrei Shleifer, Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance (Oxford, 2000). Более практический подход использован в книге: Richard Н. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven, 2008).

14 Cm.: Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas Evolving (New York, 2007).

15 См., например: James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York, 2005); Ian Ayres, Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted (London, 2007).

16 Daniel Gross, ‘The Forecast for Forecasters is Dismal’, New York Times, 4.3.2007.

17 Впервые опубликованная в 1841 году и ставшая классической книга: Charles МасКау, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (New York, 2003 [1841]).

18. Yudkowsky, ‘Cognitive Biases’. P. no.

19. Введение в работу Ло есть в упомянутой книге: Bernstein, Capital Ideas Evolving, ch. 4. См. также: John Authers, ‘Quants Adapting to a Darwinian Analysis’, Financial Times, 19.5.2008.

20. Следующие рассуждения отчасти основываются на книге: Niall Ferguson and Oliver Wyman, The Evolution of Financial Services: Making Sense of the Past, Preparing for the Future (London / New York, 2007).

21. Cm.: The Journal of Evolutionary Economics. Фундаментальные работы в этой области: A. A. Alchian, ‘Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory’, Journal of Political Economy, 58 (1950). P. 211–222, и R. R. Nelson and S. G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (Cambridge, MA, 1982).

22. Thorstein Veblen, ‘Why is Economics Not an Evolutionary Science?’ Quarterly Journal of Economics, 12 (1898). Pp. 373–397.

23. Joseph A. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (London, 1987 [1943])– Pp– 80–84.

24. Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics (London, 2005). Pp. iSoff.

25. Jonathan Guthrie, ‘How the Old Corporate Tortoise Wins the Race’, Financial Times, 15.2.2007.

26. Leslie Hannah, ‘Marshall’s “Trees” and the Global “Forest”: Were «Giant Redwoods» Different?’, in N. R. Lamoreaux, D. M. G. Raff and P. Temin (eds.), Learning by Doing in Markets, Firms and Countries (Cambridge, MA, 1999). Pp. 253–294.

27. Разумеется, здесь я вполне прямо отсылаю читателя к знаменитой книге Ричарда Докинза The Selfish Gene (2nd edn., Oxford, 1989).

28. Rudolf Hilferding, Finance Capital: A Study of the Latest Phase of Capitalist Development (London, 2006 [1919]).