War with Russia

They waited for the President to speak, faces strained, wondering who would be his first target. He was a man who applied the principle of divide and rule to his allies and subordinates as much as to his enemies.

They did not have to wait long. The President looked hard at the Defense Minister who, despite his background as a minor Communist Party functionary and never having heard a shot fired in anger, was resplendent in the uniform of a General of the Army, complete with the ribbon of Hero of the Russian Federation displayed prominently among the multiple other ribbons on his chest.

“Alexandr Borisovich, I’ve read the report on the capture of the Americans in detail. I am not impressed that one was killed. We will turn it to our advantage but, be in no doubt, I will accept no more mistakes.”

The Defense Minister shifted uneasily in his chair. “Understood, Vladimir Vladimirovich. It will not happen again.”

“I have also read the report on the situation in eastern Ukraine and am content that it remains relatively quiet,” said the President, looking at Komarov for confirmation.

Komarov nodded and the President switched his laser-like stare to the Finance Minister, “You next, please.”

From his position at the end of the table Komarov saw the sweat on the back of the minister’s bald head. He cleared his throat and swallowed hard. “Vladimir Vladimirovich, it pains me to tell you that the economic position is getting increasingly difficult. American and EU sanctions continue to have a deeply negative effect on the economy—”

The President interrupted, “These are old excuses, Boris Mikhailovich. EU sanctions have been toothless since the Italians, Greeks, Hungarians and Cypriots vetoed them at the EU Summit last June. The EU remains deeply divided.” He smirked, and then added, “My strategy of increasing the flow of refugees into Turkey by bombing civilian targets in Syria and so putting ever greater pressure on the EU has worked better than I ever thought possible.”

“Of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” continued the Finance Minister. “Nevertheless, the price of oil remains a problem. You will remember that my budget was based on a price of one hundred dollars per barrel, but the price has been consistently lower than that. There’s a glut of oil on the market following the easing in sanctions against Iran after the nuclear negotiations in Lausanne two years ago. Iranian oil is pushing prices even lower. That means we are losing around forty billion dollars a year because of sanctions and around ninety to one hundred billion dollars a year because of the low oil price. On top of that, the increase in defense spending has put a huge strain on the budget.”

The minister removed his spectacles, polished them with a white handkerchief and summoned up his resolve. “Vladimir Vladimirovich, there is no other way to describe the economic situation than very difficult.”

“What are my economic options?” demanded the President.

“In economic terms it is simple. Unless the price of oil goes back up, which no economist believes it will in the near future, we either have to cut spending or raise taxes to keep the deficit down to our projected zero-point-six percent of GDP. And if we don’t do that, we have no option but to borrow at increasingly expensive rates, which will only make the situation worse. The ruble is losing value. The forecast for growth from the Central Bank is zero and GDP is static at best.”

The President reflected silently and looked at Komarov with a raised eyebrow.

This was a moment the two men had rehearsed the day before. “I suggest we ask the Interior Minister, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” Komarov responded. “The economic picture is important, but it is the impact on your popularity which remains the key.”

The President turned to the Interior Minister, a man born in a remote village in the heart of Russia, near the River Volga, who, despite his rural origins, had made his career as a Moscow policeman. After rising through the ranks of the Criminal Investigation Department, he had eventually became Moscow’s Chief of Police through peasant cunning and driving ambition, before being appointed Interior Minister. On his way he had uncovered, and now held close to his chest, the secrets of the most powerful, including the President. Behind the gray, close-cropped hair and the broad peasant face, the Interior Minister maintained a tight grip on the levers of power.

“Boris Vadimovich, what impact is this having on public opinion?” demanded the President.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich, you know better than anyone the resilience of the Russian people. We know how to suffer and even take pride in being able to endure the hardest conditions. But even the most resilient are beginning to tire of high prices, the shortage of consumer goods in the shops, the…”