War with Russia

Komarov intervened. “Yevgeney Sergeyevich is right. Not only are Greece, Hungary and Cyprus in the bag, but we can also assume division in France. Our banks have been giving loans to Marine Le Pen’s party for some years. Now they will need to show sympathy, or we will demand immediate repayment of those debts.”

The Foreign Minister resumed, “Yes, and in Germany we can count on the willing fools who believe what they read about Russia in Spiegel. There are plenty of Germans who have a natural sympathy for us and see NATO as a dangerous aggressor.”

“We are all agreed then that NATO is an existential threat. But what about its capabilities?” asked the President.

“Therein lies the paradox, Vladimir Vladimirovich. Even as it expands eastward, NATO is like a marshmallow: soft at the center. It talks and talks about the principle of collective defense. However, while we are increasing defense spending, NATO nations can only promise to try and raise spending to the agreed NATO levels within ten years. I do not for a moment believe that Britain, France or Germany will risk the lives of their soldiers to defend NATO’s eastern member states. Their electorates will simply not allow it. Yes, the Alliance has a minimal presence in the Baltic states, but it shows no sign of wanting to antagonize us by establishing anything permanent.

“However, while the Alliance is weak, the bottom line is that NATO could, in time, pose a real and present danger to Russia. And just as worrying, the Baltic states could offer them a convenient launch pad for an attack on us. Right now though, NATO does not possess the physical capability to counter anything we might do. Almost as important, it also lacks the political and moral will to do so. While that is true of its leaders today, it might not be the case tomorrow.”

The President stared at the far wall before speaking again. “I agree that Britain, France and Germany will do nothing. And Britain has become an international irrelevance.” The President at last gave a caustic smile. “So, those countries don’t count. But what about America?”

“Still the strongest military power on the globe. However, since the Obama presidency, they show no appetite to re-engage in Europe. We have no need to fear the few tanks they have placed in storage across Eastern Europe, from Estonia to Bulgaria. They are only for show. Without crews, ammunition, spare parts and maintenance teams they are so much useless metal.”

The President held up his hand for silence. “Are we making the mistake of underestimating them? After all, what about last year’s exercise in Poland, just before the NATO Summit? What could be more aggressive than deploying over twenty-five thousand troops as a show of force so close to our borders?” He shifted in his chair and then added, “You may be right about NATO’s present weakness, but I see mortal danger to Russia from America one day… and that means mortal danger to all of us.” He looked meaningfully around the small group of men who were his inner circle. “My first duty is to defend Russia by preventing NATO encirclement. And the way to do that is to seize eastern Ukraine and the Baltic states.”

The Foreign Minister thought before answering. “I accept that this deployment was a display of aggression against Russia. But it is still early days for the new president. We think that while they are talking big, they do not have the will or the mandate to engage overseas.”

Komarov looked at the President. “That opinion is reinforced by the latest FSB report.”

“So I saw… but I repeat, beware of underestimating the Americans.”

Next the President turned to the Chief of the General Staff, his principal military adviser, rather than to the ludicrously bemedaled Defense Minister who sat alongside him. “Are Russia’s armed forces ready, Mikhail Nikolayevich?”

“Without question, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” the soldier replied.

As ever, Komarov noted how out of place he looked at this meeting. He was an ethnic Tatar from Kazan who, unusually for a Tatar, sat at the head of the Russian Armed Forces. Steady eyes, high cheekbones, dark greying hair, a man hardened in combat in Chechnya. He was the holder of the Military Order of Valor First Class, and a man who looked younger than his fifty-nine years.

“Our forces are ready to finish this business in Ukraine. At your command we are ready to move into the Baltic states. Our recent snap exercises have ensured that the Baltic and Northern Fleets are prepared for war, as are our air and ground forces. Our nuclear forces are on high alert and all five strategic submarines of the Northern Fleet are at sea with full complements of submarine-launched nuclear missiles. We have just reinforced Kaliningrad with nuclear-armed Iskander missiles. Once the final logistic outload is completed we will be ready for war.”