War with Russia

“SACEUR’s and my unequivocal advice is that, by sending a strong signal of NATO resolve right now, we may force the Russians to think twice before proceeding further against the Baltics. NATO would, emphatically, not be attacking Russia by doing this. But by stationing multinational NATO forces in these countries, Russia will be in no doubt that an attack on one would truly be an attack on all. I know I must avoid making any political comment but let me finish by telling you what any soldier who has studied his profession will tell you… Wars are caused by weakness. History teaches us that, time and time again, aggressors attack when they think they can get one over their adversary. Russia is militarily stronger than it has been for a long time. NATO weaker. Our conclusion is that this is one such moment. That is why we give the advice we do.”

Secretary General Kostilek then gave the floor to the ambassadors. Successively, the US, UK, Poland, Norway and Denmark supported the proposal. France came to the support of its old ally Poland. Most of the southern Europeans stayed silent; unwilling to support the proposal, but equally unwilling to cross the USA.

More encouraging than I had hoped for, thought McKinlay. We may even get a positive decision pretty quickly.

Then the bulky German ambassador, appetite for lunch entirely unsatisfied by a small bar of chocolate, took the floor; bombastic, loud and aggressive.

“Germany cannot accept this military advice under any circumstances. Not only have the NATO Military Authorities broken procedure by not declaring Activation Warning before Activation Order, but we also believe that such a deployment by NATO will be seen as a provocation by Russia and lead to precisely the situation we are seeking to avoid. No. There can be no deployment of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force and certainly no deployment of the NATO Response Force, yet. Germany insists that all the political means of defusing this crisis must be brought to bear before going down a path which could lead to a major war in Europe.”

McKinlay could now see from the relief on the faces around the table that the German view had many supporters, and not only from the southern Europeans. The Greek ambassador was next. Unshaven in his leather jacket, McKinlay noted he was today sporting a gold earring, along with the gold medallion visible above his T-shirt.

“After the saga of the Euro and Germany’s overbearing attitude and lack of understanding for the problems faced by Greece, I am surprised to find myself in agreement with the German ambassador.”

He nodded to the German ambassador, who looked back as if the Greek was something unsavory the restaurant cat had brought in.

“Greece has always been a loyal member of the Alliance but, on this occasion, we find that our ties of Orthodox brotherhood and the support we have been given by Russia in our recent troubles must take precedence. Greece believes it would be totally unjustified to provoke the situation further by any form of NATO deployment. Greece cannot accept that recent events… and my government sends its condolences to the families of those students murdered by this lone madman… constitute an attack on Latvia or any of the Baltic states. What we have heard is a totally unjustified and hysterical overreaction by these warmongering generals. The NATO Military Authorities overreach themselves. There must be no declaration of Article Five.”

McKinlay saw Kostilek begin to drum his fingers on the table.

And then the Hungarian spoke—or rather read his statement.

“Hungary recognizes no threat from Russia to any NATO country. Hungary cannot support any declaration of Article Five.”

Kostilek held his hand up. “I regret that I have to exercise my prerogative as Secretary General to intervene.” His voice was even and carefully modulated, but he was clearly angry. “The bedrock assumption of this Alliance is collective defense… What we have just heard from Germany, Greece and Hungary strikes right at the very heart of that assumption. There is a clear and present danger facing one, if not three NATO allies. The fact that the solidarity of NATO is being undermined by three nations who are only too ready to accept that American taxpayers should continue to underwrite their defense, without being prepared to pay their way, only adds insult to injury. Worse than that, I detect a degree of posturing to domestic politics in these statements.”

He got no further. The German ambassador erupted with a roar of anger, stood up, gathered up his papers and stormed out of the chamber. The Greek followed, knocking over his chair as he did so. The Hungarian sat there, mouth open like a fish gasping for air, gesturing for one of his aides to tell him what had been said, for his English was not up to understanding the Secretary General’s words.

There was stunned silence in the chamber. This was unprecedented.