War with Russia

“And we shouldn’t forget,” added Balderis, raising his voice to the room generally, “76th Guards Assault Landing Division is battle hardened and well led. Its current commander, Major General Aleksei Naumets, was my platoon commander when I was a Soviet conscript and he was a mean bastard even then. It took part in the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and fought in the Donbass. They took casualties. All buried in Ukraine to avoid negative publicity back home. After Afghanistan and Chechnya, the Russians liked the sight of returning body-bags no more than the Americans. But these guys are good soldiers. And tough as hell… They know what they are doing.”

He turned back to Morland. “We’ve been seeing regular incursions by fifteen to twenty Ilyushin Il-76, four-engine, heavy lift ‘Candid’ aircraft flying out of Pskov. That’s easily a battalion’s worth of airborne troops with light armored vehicles. They fly up to the border, alert our radars, and then fly north along the border before heading back to Pskov. They might do that three or four times just to rattle us. It doesn’t. But it shows just how quickly they could get significant numbers of troops on the ground if they wanted to. And, of course, they monitor our response times and positions of our radars.”

“Don’t the Baltic air-policing fighters intercept them?” asked Morland. “I know the NATO nations provide them on a rotational basis to help protect your airspace.”

“If only…” Balderis grunted. “It depends which nation is providing it. The Brits, Americans, Danes, Norwegians and French are pretty good. But much depends on the duty officer at Ramstein, in Germany, where they are commanded from. If he’s feeling punchy then they intercept. But all too often, the Russians are allowed to get away with it. So they think NATO is a soft touch. And who is to say that one day they don’t turn right at our border and just keep coming. By the time the aircraft have been scrambled it will be too late. Anyway, it’s pretty academic. You can’t do much against a division with only four fighters.”

“That’s correct, Sir,” the Chief of Staff confirmed. “We’ve seen a massive increase in Russian air incursions in the last week, both across the border and into our airspace above the Baltic. Up three hundred percent on the previous period last month. As well as that, the Navy have been tracking Russian Baltic Fleet ships en route to Kaliningrad. They are routinely sailing into Latvian coastal waters.”

Balderis pondered. “I know how the Russians think. They’ll be convinced they’ve softened us up with their Special Forces, propaganda and civic disturbances. They’ll strike when they’re confident we’ll offer no resistance. But they still don’t understand us. We let them in without a fight in 1939. But not this time… This time we know what it’s like to live under them. This time we’ll fight those bastards to the death,” he exclaimed with feeling.

He composed himself and turned back to the Chief of Staff. “So much for the good news from Russia. What about the internal threat?”

The briefing continued. “Sir, the Constitution Protection Bureau liaison officer here has confirmed the extent of RNZS, Russian People’s Protection Force, participation in yesterday’s riot.” He looked at Krauja, who nodded her head in agreement.

“The RNZS continue to call on Russia for the President to protect them. We estimate that the RNZS is stood by in all majority Russian-speaking communities and will be mobilized quickly if Russia gives the order. We’re also watching carefully in case it’s mobilized as a nominal self-protection force following our call-out of the National Guard.”

“Yes, we’ll need to watch that. The sooner the mobilization can be completed the better,” responded Balderis. “But it’s going to take a couple of days before we’re completely ready.”

“Correct, Sir,” said the Chief of Staff. “I was coming to that. The regular Land Forces infantry brigade is at full readiness now and moving to occupy its pre-recced wartime positions. The Naval Flotilla is patrolling the coastline of the Baltic and the Gulf of Riga. As for the Air Force, the aviation squadron is deploying with the infantry brigade, while the air surveillance squadron maintains overwatch on all likely border crossing sites.”

“Air defense?” questioned Balderis.

“The air defense wing is deployed to cover pre-recced landing sites around Riga. War stocks of logistics are being outloaded and the Training Schools have adopted their wartime roles. The National Guard mobilization is going well and we’ve had an impressive turnout of reservists. We estimate that the first to be fully ready will be the Third Defense District in Riga; probably by midday on the twentieth of May.”

“What about the Second Defense District in Rezekne?” questioned Balderis. “If the Russians roll in across the border, they’ll be first in contact. They’ll be heavily outnumbered. I know they’ll put up a good fight, but they can’t hope to stop them.”