War with Russia

“The bigger problem, though, is that we need a command-and-control structure in the Baltic as NATO maritime forces arrive and come online up there, and STRIKFORNATO—Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO—is the obvious HQ to send. Queen Elizabeth may not have its designated fighters on deck, maritime-patrol aircraft, or enough naval escorts running dedicated, integrated defense, but that does not mean there are no NATO assets right on hand in the Baltic. Because there are. Plenty of them. Aircraft out of Germany, Poland and Denmark—to say nothing of our partners, Sweden and Finland. The same for anti-sub maritime-patrol aircraft and naval escorts. The Baltic is a positive hive of NATO activity at this very moment. But unless Queen Elizabeth, or a NATO HQ, is getting and controlling all that information they are sending back, and in real time, it is uncoordinated and may count for little.”

Now it was the Greek logistics lieutenant colonel who looked confused, although whether it was lack of understanding of the English language, or naval tactics, McKinlay could not be sure. But instead of getting angry, McKinlay reined himself in. With Greece so unexpectedly falling into line behind Germany and signing up for Article 5, he was going to have to be extra diplomatic and keep the Greeks well on side. The time-honored NATO “two-step”—the time-and-energy sapping diplomatic waltz, anathema to a fighting soldier like him—was just beginning.

“The point is this.” He held up his hand to Black to show he would explain. “Only a headquarters can properly control information and order action. So, if a German maritime aircraft or a Danish frigate detects a Russian submarine in the area, they will report it back to their own national headquarters. That information should then find its way to the Queen Elizabeth and other NATO shipping, but,” he shrugged for effect, “how long will that take? An hour? A day? Queen Elizabeth needs that information instantly, if she is to be able to act on it straight away.

“Conversely, if one of Queen Elizabeth’s escorts spots a Russian sub anywhere in the area, she needs aircraft up, or escorts over it, to scare it away or sink it. That order will need to be actioned in seconds. At this moment, a request could easily take hours to be received and actioned through the different national headquarters, by which time it will be too late. There’s no point in having all the depth charges and missiles in the world, if they are pointing in the wrong direction, or not ready to fire when they are needed, where they’re needed. So the answer is simple: all maritime assets need to be under NATO command and that includes the Queen Elizabeth Task Group.”

The Greek nodded his understanding, while the Turk shook his head in mock bewilderment that he had even needed something so basic explaining to him. Heads were going to need to be cracked together, McKinlay decided, as he waved to Fritz to continue.

“The bad news is that the land component is in trouble. As you’ll recall, Sir, we had serious problems filling the gaps in the force structure at the recent Global Force Generation Conference back in March.”

McKinlay nodded. He remembered that tortuous conference only too well.

“The nations have not forgotten you being very blunt, Sir,” added Hansen. “You were very clear that if the NRF was to be credible as a NATO reserve, the nations would have to step up to the mark with properly trained forces…”

“Right.” McKinlay could see where the colonel was going with this and interrupted him. “There’s no point in crying over spilled milk. Take me through the detail. I want to know the status of each unit, the nation concerned, and what we need to do about it. I’ll then talk to the Defense Chiefs of the nations facing the biggest challenges and brief SACEUR so that he understands the art of the possible.”

Two hours later, after an exhaustive session with his staff and a couple of difficult telephone conversations with the Defense Chiefs of France and Spain, McKinlay was sitting in SACEUR’s palatial office. Both men could not help but keep glancing at the silent CNN picture on the flat-screen TV, set between the multiple books arranged in shelves next to it. It was showing shots of Russian troops setting up road blocks in the cities of the Baltic states.

McKinlay came to the point. “Bad news first, SACEUR. The land element of the NRF is not fit for purpose. As you know, NATO is meant to be able to deploy forty thousand all-up, with the lead element being the VJTF brigade of five thousand. But, that’s awa’ wi’ th’ fairies.” He momentarily relapsed into Scots in his irritation. “We can’t even deploy five thousand from the VJTF, let alone forty thousand from the follow-up NRF and, for a change, it’s not the force generation which is the problem; it’s moving units across Europe and into position.”

“I’m not sure I’m following you on this one, Dave.”