War with Russia

“We’re seeing the unintended consequences of closing internal European borders as a result of the migrant crisis. To give you an idea… The VJTF is running into all sorts of problems moving equipment and ammunition across borders. For example, I’m hearing that it could take up to fifteen days to get the diplomatic clearances to move ammunition from Germany into Poland, all the result of efforts to counter jihadi terrorists moving freely about Europe after the Paris attacks. More than that, we’ve just heard that the Albanian and Croatian units, which are inbound from the Balkans, are stuck on the Hungarian border, because the border police are not letting them cross as a result of the measures put in place to control refugees.”

SACEUR now nodded, but looked angry. The failure of the EU and NATO to work together as a result of the politics of the eastern Mediterranean never failed to irritate him.

“Anyway, I’ve talked to Frontex, the EU agency responsible for coordinating border management, but it’s been next to useless. To cap it all, the Turks are vetoing any parallel work with the EU because Cyprus was admitted to the EU without resolution of the issue of Turkish-occupied North Cyprus. Conclusion: we’re not going to get anything quickly and some not at all. The Russians may have done a brilliant job of forcing the shirkers into agreeing Article Five by sinking the two NATO ships and slaughtering the US Air Force detachment at Lielvārde, but be under no illusions, putting their names to an agreement and actually sending forces to fight the Russians are two very different matters.”

Admiral Max Howard rubbed his chin reflectively. “Hmm, from what you’ve just told me, I’m not sure we’d want some of them anyway…”

McKinlay nodded his agreement. “Exactly. A brigade made up of fourteen nations who’ve never trained together properly is a pretty flaky force to put into a fight.”

“OK, Dave, let’s look on the bright side,” SACEUR continued. “I’m not sure we’re in the business of fast reaction with land forces anyway. As you say, it’s too late to save the Baltics. The President has won this round. But we are in the business of pulling in the allies to demonstrate our readiness to respond to any more aggression. Stop them heading for, say, Poland. All we’ve got at the moment is maritime forces and even then, although Article Five has been declared, some nations will have to go to their parliaments before they can ratify it.” Howard was clearly referring, obliquely, to the British prime minister’s dependence on the support of the House of Commons, while in Germany the Bundestag and Constitutional Court would doubtless demand to have their say.

McKinlay watched SACEUR look out of the window, as he considered the gravity of the situation that he faced as NATO’s strategic commander. Decision made, he turned to face him again.

“Dave, I’m thinking about my enemy… about the President, holed up in the Kremlin, surrounded by his small clique of advisers, paranoid about an attack from NATO. He thinks he can control the dynamic of what he has started. He believes, and the others will be telling him, that now that he’s got the Baltics he’ll be able to hunker down… that the threat of his S400 and nuclear Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad is more than enough to ensure we won’t dare to try to recover the Baltic states.”

“He might hunker down, which would be the clever thing to do,” responded McKinlay. “But, just like Hitler, he may think it was too easy and that may encourage him to keep going while he can.”

“Good analogy, Dave. Hitler initially had no intentions of occupying France or planning an invasion of Britain, but when it came to it, he found it much easier than he’d expected. Then he realized that if he inflicted a crushing defeat on his enemies, they’d never be able to come back at him. The President is not only paranoid with his fear of NATO, but he’s also paranoid because he knows that the only way he’ll leave the Kremlin is feet first… either as a result of old age, or with a bullet in the back of his head. If he’s to make it the former, he’s got to stay in power, come what may, and that means he’s got to keep going. If he’s found it so easy to take the Baltics, what is to stop him marching into Warsaw? Or even Berlin? He’s making the age-old mistake of thinking that war has a logic and that he can control it. But no one can control the dynamic of war once Pandora’s box is open. He’d have done well to have studied Clausewitz.”

McKinlay, recalling his Commandant’s paper on Carl von Clausewitz at Camberley, quoted from the Prussian philosopher of war: “War has its own grammar, but not its own logic.” Then he added, “And he’s also forgotten that strategy has a human dimension.”