Warday

CONFIDENTIAL

REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT

PROJECTED LONG-TERM RADIATION EFFECTS AS A RESULT OF THE OCTOBER 1988 WAR

PREPARED BY THE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY

DECEMBER 7, 1992

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On December 1, 1992, the Livermore National Laboratory completed a six-month effort to assess existing studies on the long-term radiation effects of the October 1988 war. Data from this study were then used to calculate the somatic and genetic effects that can be expected over the next 35 to 40 years. Using information from European and Japanese sources, the study was also able to assess long-term radiation effects on areas (1) outside of the United States affected by fallout, and (2) within the Soviet Union as a result of the American counterattack.

BACKGROUND OF THE ATTACK

The Soviet attack in October 1988 was directed against three urban centers (New York, Washington, D.C., and San Antonio, Texas) and against the operational SAC bomber bases and ICBM fields located in four upper Central and Western states (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota). It is believed that some 300 + megatons (MT) of effective yield were realized in this attack. The Soviets employed a strategy against urban centers of detonating their weapons at a height of some 7,000 feet, which was clearly intended to heighten the range of destruction.

Against military targets they employed a mixed strategy of airbursts against airbases and groundbursts against hardened missile silos. Airbursts and groundbursts above cities appear to have averaged some 10 MT each.

It should be remembered that impacted areas remain highly radioactive for a period of time, although considerable radioactive decay will occur within the first 30 days. Fallout, however, continues over an extended period of time. While lethal doses of radiation may not occur, sublethal doses have been common; most of this fallout, sufficient to have caused considerable injury, was material deposited in the troposphere and brought down to earth over a period of weeks, largely by rain.

Some fallout was placed into the stratosphere, where it will continue to fall to earth over a period of years. Radioactive elements such as strontium 90 and carbon 14 have particularly long lives and pose the greatest danger over the long term.

Our projections for long-term radiation effects are perhaps most affected by the fallout of these dangerous elements.

PROJECTED LONG-TERM EFFECTS FROM RADIATION

Given the nature of the Soviet attack, the targets, calculated MY yield, and existent and projected fallout, the following somatic and genetic effects can be anticipated in the United States alone over the next 35–40 years:

SOMATIC EFFECTS

Cancer deaths	3,000,000
Thyroid cancers	2,000,000
Thyroid nodules	3,000,000

GENETIC EFFECTS

Abortions due to chromosomal damage	1,500,000
Other genetic effects	4,500,000

These same effects, considered for the Northern Hemisphere (concentrated between 30 degrees and 60 degrees North Latitude) for the same time period, are as follows:

SOMATIC EFFECTS

Cancer deaths	1,500,000
Thyroid cancers	1,400,000
Thyroid nodules	2,000,000

GENETIC EFFECTS

Abortions due to chromosomal damage	850,000
Other genetic effects	3,000,000

The estimated effects on the Soviet Union as a result of the American attack, over the same time period, are as follows:

SOMATIC EFFECTS

Cancer deaths	1,500,000
Thyroid cancers	2,500,000
Thyroid nodules	3,600,000

GENETIC EFFECTS

Abortions due to chromosomal damage	1,750,000
Other genetic effects	2,000,000

These projections, of course, do not include those individuals killed either during the attack or shortly thereafter.