Warday

PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFING PAPER

National Security Council

Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects

August 27, 1992

The Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects was asked by the Executive Office on August 1, 1992, to prepare a summary of information available on the physiological and related socio-psychological effects observed to date in victims of the nuclear bombings of 1988, especially on those effects caused by or related to radiation. Further, we were asked to report wherever possible on data for both the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, scientific information is largely unavailable from the Soviet Union. Secondary observations from visiting European teams suggest, however, that long-term trends observed here in the United States are generally comparable to trends believed to exist in the USSR. It is not the intention of this summary report to describe political developments, as more complete studies of the subject are available from other government agencies.

The Committee wishes to stress from the outset that while this report summarizes a considerable body of evidence, based on classic prewar studies as well as on American and British studies undertaken since 1988, only major trends are reported here. Contemporary studies, for example, have been conducted only during the last three years, although some five years have passed since Warday. It must be noted that the full, long-term consequences of massive radiation dosages cannot be known completely at this time; this is particularly true of genetic effects.

As requested, this report will address presently observed trends in physiological/genetic injuries caused by war-related radiation exposure. Where appropriate, however, related socio-psychological effects also will be described. It is important to note that these data describe only survivors of the attack.

1.1 NEOPLASMS

The single most dramatic trend observed to date is in the inordinate number of radiation-induced neoplasms, or cancers, from some 30 percent nationwide before the war to almost 60 percent today. Studies conducted by the National Centers for Disease Control in the Washington , D.C., zone, and by the joint American-British Radiation Effects Teams in the South Texas zone, provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that perhaps as much as 90 percent of the affected populations in both zones suffer to some degree from radiation-induced cancers. Of this population, depending upon radiation dosage (both short and cumulative), more than 60 percent have experienced malignant neoplastic diseases. Skin tumors are perhaps the most common, followed by lung, stomach, breast, and ovary/reproductive organs. The prewar cancer rate for the entire population, excluding cancer of the skin, was perhaps 30 percent; of that population, some 15–18 percent died. Exposure to radiation at the 150–200-rem level, however, effectively doubles the rate of cancer. Studies conducted after Warday suggest that more than half of the population in or near bombed areas suffered rem exposures at the 350–500 level. Aerial surveys of the Texas and New York zones suggest that individuals as far away as 2.5 miles from GZ [Ground Zero] experienced exposure levels of 100–150 rems. Those individuals two miles from GZ probably received exposures in the 500-rem level. Demographic correlates, therefore, suggest that in these two urban zones alone, more than 35 million persons experienced radiation levels sufficient to cause cancer. Correcting for those killed instantly and those who died within the first six months, some 15 million persons have now, or can be expected to have, malignancies.

Related to the dramatic rise in cancer rates is the substantial rise in leukemia, of which granulocytic leukemia is perhaps the most frequently observed. Consequently, there has been a dramatic rise in related blood diseases.

While cancer and leukemia represent the most dramatic radiation-disease trends, it must be remembered that radiation fundamentally attacks the cellular system of the body. This occurs because ionizing radiation creates changes in individual cells. When sufficient changes occur, the individual organ ceases to function properly. Cells of different types, and therefore different organs, have varying levels of radio-sensitivity. Consequently, all of the following organs are susceptible, in descending order of sensitivity:

• lymphoid tissue and bone marrow

• epithelial tissues, such as the ovaries and testes and the skin

• blood vessels

• smooth and striated muscles

• differentiated nerve cells

Nerves in general are the most resistant to radioactivity, although the nerves of embryos and of the adult cerebellum are exceptions and are quite sensitive.

1.2 CATARACTS

The incidence of non-vision-disturbing lens opacities, or cataracts, also has increased markedly. These cataracts are similar to those reported in cases where individuals have experienced an overexposure to X-rays or gamma radiation. Fast neutrons are generally regarded as the primary source of this disease. It is suspected that cataracts of the type observed are caused by exposure to radiation dosages of 300 rems or more. Although firm data are not available, extrapolations of observed sample populations suggest that between 12 and 15 percent of the population, or ten million persons, have or will develop radiation-induced cataracts. It is not known at this time what percentage will require surgical treatment.

1.3 SKIN DISEASES

Skin diseases, in addition to the neoplasms described above, are largely related to radiation burns, usually caused by beta particles. Skin diseases caused by fallout can be from beta and/or gamma radiation.

Diseases of this sort range from sensations of “burning” to skin discoloration, lesions, ulcers, formation of keloids, or overgrowths of scar tissue, epilation or baldness, and atrophied limbs or whole portions of body surfaces.

Again, although hard data are not available, statistical projections based on observed samples suggest that some 75million persons are or can be expected to be infected with varying degrees of skin diseases.

It is important to note that the substantial areas of the United States still designated Dead, Red, or Orange Zones for their varying radiation levels almost certainly guarantee a continuing population of afflicted individuals. Those populations located adjacent to radioactive zones come into contact regularly with objects or contaminants of one kind or another that either engender first-time exposures or form part of the cumulative exposure so frequently reported by local and regional medical centers. Radioactive foodstuffs are a continuing source of contamination, as are objects “looted” from restricted or forbidden areas. The greatest single source of “new” radiation, however, is that dropped by atmospheric fallout. Fission products such as cesium 137 (half-life of 30.5 years), strontium 90 (half-life of 27.7 years), and carbon 14 (half-life of 5,760 years) are perhaps the most important contributors to long-term radioactive exposures. Their effect upon skin diseases is more ascertainable; their effects on internal systems are unknown and therefore merit close medical study.

1.4 GENETIC ALTERATIONS

It is well documented that exposure to radiation in measurable amounts causes changes in the hereditary components of reproductive cells. Observations of nuclear industry workers, as well as of the victims of World War II atomic bombings, confirm these effects in future generations. However, none of these prewar populations were exposed to such high and continuing levels of radiation as have been the populations of the United States and the Soviet Union. Genetic mutations have been noted in both countries and in adjacent countries where radioactivity is present through fallout in abnormal counts.

The process of genetic alteration is very complex and beyond the scope of this report. Full implications of genetic changes are not known and will not be known for multiple generations, although some ten million people in the United States are expected to be affected during the next 25–35 years. The following observations, however, serve to illustrate the extreme changes that have already occurred. Until extensive studies are completed, it is impossible to differentiate between those genetic changes caused by minor radiation exposures (0 to 250 rems, for example) and changes caused by higher levels of exposure (250 to 500 rems). Also, it is presently impossible to understand the differing effects of radiation absorbed all at once or cumulatively, in terms of resultant generatic alterations.

In summary, then, the following genetic trends have been observed in individuals exposed to varying levels of radiation:

• increased rates of sterility of 65 percent

• increased rates of abortions caused by chromosomal damage of 27 percent

• increased rates of stillbirths to 35 out of every 100 births

• increased rates of children born with physical handicaps of 57 percent

• specific increase of 32 percent in frequency of children born with varying levels of mental retardation

• increased rate of 28 percent in infant deaths

• increased rates of 25–30 percent of chronic susceptibility to disease in young children born after Warday, especially to respiratory and cardiac diseases

1.5 NONSPECIFIC SCLEROSING SYNDROME

While not necessarily induced by radiation exposure, Nonspecific Sclerosing Disease, or NSD, is noted more frequently in individuals, and in populations as a whole, that have been exposed to radioactivity, especially in populations adjacent to contaminated areas. Early symptoms include parched skin, mostly on the chest or abdomen, and the development of lumpy swellings over the surface of the body. Lack of appetite or anorexia follows, often complicated by difficulty in breathing.

Eventually there is a collapse of the internal organs. Very little is known about NSD. The origin of the disease and its etiology are little understood. It is perhaps trauma-related, although individuals almost always have had exposure to radiation above 100 rems. There appears to be no treatment at this time, and the fatality rate varies between 70 and 100 percent among those who contract it.

1.6. GENERAL

There is a whole family of medical conditions related to the shock and trauma associated with nuclear war. Much has been written about the broad sociological changes that have occurred in the last five years, especially regarding individual and societal perceptions of national and international government, long-term security, possibilities for international accord, and fundamental changes in relationships between individuals at all levels of society. This report, however, is concerned with effects of a more physiological nature.

In both child and adult populations there is a marked increase in general susceptibility to disease. No doubt this susceptibility is influenced by stress, lack of suitable diet or caloric intake, and depressed metabolic levels. Continuing unsanitary conditions in or near War Zones are another major contributor to high levels of illnesses such as influenza and dysentery.

There is an increase in the number of persons displaying high levels of depression, dysphoria, unprovoked fears, etc.

Also, there is an increase in the number of persons exhibiting pronounced and chronic shock and disorientation. In some cases this condition, if severe enough, produces abnormal and often violent reactions to ordinary stimuli. It is estimated that some 10–15 million persons exhibit permanent disorientation. It is believed that this condition is a major factor in the large nomadic sub-populations that live on the fringes of the War Zones.

It should be mentioned here that a considerable portion of the population demonstrates varying degrees of phobic reactions to real or imagined radiation. There is a very pervasive fear of radioactive contamination, which has led to excessive countermeasures, such as over-strict local or regional laws. This abnormal fear is present even in “safe” areas such as California and the Northwestern states.

Other conditions, also believed to be trauma-induced, include marked increases in the reported rates of impotence, baldness, and a range of “sympathetic” ailments in individuals with little or no exposure to radiation.

SUMMARY

Less than five years have passed since Warday. While the full long-term implications of radioactivity are not known with certainty, sufficient trends have emerged to provide a disturbing portrait of surviving American society. The Committee recognizes that while the full effects of nuclear war are many, it is clear that the United States will have as a major concern, for many decades to come, the treatment of radiation-related diseases.

Both the Executive and Legislative branches of government should place their highest priority on the care and treatment of those members of the population who have suffered, or will suffer, the lasting effects of this war. The evidence is sufficient to document the alarming rise in human systemic illnesses; the effects upon the newly born and upon generations to come are even more disturbing.

SIGNED: Charles Wilson, M.D.

Everett Simkin, M.D.

Mary Louise Amadden, Ph.D.

William Lloyd, M.D.

Mario de los Santos, Ph.D.

Trevett Cole, Jr., Ph.D.