When China Rules the World

China’s impact on Africa has so far, it would appear, been positive. [1065] First, it has driven up both demand and prices for those many African countries that are commodity exporters, at least until the onset of the global downturn. Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP increased by an average of 4.4% in 2001-4, 5-6% in 2005-6, and a projected 7% in 2007, compared with 2.6% in 1999- 2001, [1066] with China clearly the major factor since it has accounted for most of the increase in the global consumption of commodities since 1998. [1067] In addition, the growing availability of cheap Chinese manufactured goods has had a beneficial effect for consumers. [1068] The losers have been those countries that are not commodity exporters or those producers – as in South Africa, Kenya and Mauritius, for instance – which compete with Chinese manufacturing exports. [1069] Chinese textile exports have led to many redundancies in various African nations, notably South Africa, Lesotho and Kenya. [1070] Overall, however, there have been a lot more winners than losers. Second, China ’s arrival as an alternative source of trade, aid and investment has created a competitive environment for African states where they are no longer simply dependent on Western nations, the IMF and the World Bank. The most dramatic illustration of this has been Angola, which was able to break off negotiations with the IMF in 2007 when China offered it a loan on more favourable terms. [1071] China ’s involvement thus has had the effect of boosting the strategic importance of Africa in the world economy. [1072] Third, Chinese assistance tends to come in the form of a package, including important infrastructural projects like roads, railways and major public buildings, as well as the provision of technical expertise. [1073] (In contrast, most Western investment in Africa is concentrated in oil and other commodities and lacks the infrastructural dimension.) Fourth, Chinese aid has far fewer strings attached than that of Western nations and institutions. While the IMF and the World Bank have insisted, in accord with their ideological agenda, on the liberalization of foreign trade, privatization and a reduced role for the state, the Chinese stance is far less restrictive. [1074] In addition, the West frequently attaches political conditions concerning democracy and human rights while the Chinese insist on no such conditionality. This conforms to the Chinese emphasis on respect for sovereignty, which they regard as the most important principle in international law and which is directly related to their own historical experience during the ‘century of humiliation’. In April 2006, in an address to the Nigerian National Assembly, Hu Jintao declared: ‘ China steadfastly supports the wish of the African countries to safeguard their independence and sovereignty and choose their roads of development according to their national conditions.’ [1075]

Table 5. Number of Chinese in selected African countries, 2003-7.