When China Rules the World

The significance of China ’s African mission is enormous. Its rapidly growing influence suggests that in due course it will probably become the dominant player on the continent, and serves as a bold statement of China ’s wider global intentions. The speed of China ’s involvement in Africa, and its success in wooing the African elites, has put the West on the defensive in a continent where it has a poor historical record. [1093] Unlike the ‘scramble for Africa’ in the late nineteenth century, which generated bitter intra-European rivalry, China’s involvement has not as yet produced significant tensions with the US, Britain or France, though that could change. The recent establishment of the United States Africa Command to coordinate its military relations and activities on the continent suggests that it is concerned about China ’s growing influence; as of late 2008, however, the US had failed to find an African location for its headquarters, stating that it would be based in Stutt gart for the foreseeable future. Apart from the rather more attractive terms that China offers African countries, one of the reasons for its remarkable progress on the continent is that it does not carry the same kind of historical baggage as the West, a fact which it regularly stresses. In this context China has emphasized that Zheng He’s voyages to East Africa in the early fifteenth century sought no territory and took no slaves, in contrast to the Europeans. More importantly, during the Maoist period China was, in contrast to the West, a staunch supporter of the African independence movements. Thus China, with its own experience of colonization, its anti-colonial record and its status as a developing country, has more legitimacy and enjoys a greater affinity with the African nations than does the West. [1094] This is reflected in the fact that in the 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, for example, respondents in ten African countries expressed far more favourable attitudes towards China than they did towards the United States.

THE MIDDLE EAST AND IRAN

Nearly two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves are concentrated in the Arabian Gulf, with Saudi Arabia controlling over a quarter, and Iraq and Kuwait sharing a little under a quarter. These three countries control about half of the world’s known oil reserves. Another potentially large producer in the region, Iran, accounts for a little under a tenth of world oil reserves. The Gulf States are responsible for nearly 40 per cent of world crude oil exports, with Saudi Arabia ’s share around 12 per cent and Iran ’s 7 per cent. China became a net importer of oil products in 1993 and of crude oil in 1996. [1095] It is estimated that by 2020 China will have to import in the range of 57-73 per cent of its oil requirements. [1096] China first became seriously concerned about its future oil supplies during the 1990s and as a result began to take steps to ensure their reliability. Until 2006 its biggest single supplier was Saudi Arabia, but Iran is also very important. It would therefore be natural for China to seek a much closer relationship with the Middle East. Unlike Africa, however, the region is regarded by the Americans as its sphere of influence. The US has become increasingly embroiled in the Middle East over the last thirty years, building extremely close relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia in particular, and becoming involved in two Gulf Wars with Iraq, the second largest oil producer, with the invasion in 2003 culminating in the country’s occupation. The Chinese, as a consequence, have trodden very warily in the region for fear of antagonizing the United States, whose relationship, ever since the reform period began, it has prioritized over all others. In contrast to Africa, which has clearly now assumed a central importance in its foreign policy, China regards the Middle East, as a result, as of only second-tier significance. [1097] Over the last few years it has employed various strategies to try to secure its oil supplies from the region. It has sought to negotiate long-term energy supply arrangements, most notably a ‘strategic oil partnership’ with the Saudis in 1999; [1098] Chinese oil companies have tried to gain rights to invest and develop oilfields in the region; and, finally, China has encouraged companies in the Gulf to invest in Chinese refineries in order to try to promote closer links. [1099]