When China Rules the World

During the 1980s, after two decades of bitter antagonism, China ’s relations with the Soviet Union began to improve. It was the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early nineties, however, that was to provide the conditions for a complete transformation in the relationship between the two countries. Russia became a pale shadow of its former Soviet self, with only half of its former GDP and less than half of its previous population, though still with around 80 per cent of its old territory. [1109] Meanwhile, China embarked on its reform programme and enjoyed non-stop double-digit growth. Together, these two developments represented a huge shift in the balance of power between the two countries, with China now in a far more powerful position than its erstwhile rival. During the nineties the two countries finally agreed, after centuries of dispute, on a common border, which, at 2,700 miles, is the longest in the world. From being a highly militarized region, the border became a centre of trade and exchange. The resolution of the frontier issue enabled Russia and China to withdraw large numbers of troops from either side of the border, Russia to Chechnya and (in response to NATO’s expansion) its Europe-facing territory, and China to the Taiwan Strait. [1110] In the steadily improving atmosphere between the two, they established, along with several newly independent Central Asian nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, for the purpose of promoting collaboration and improving security in the region. A shared, overarching Sino-Russian concern about the overweening power of the United States in the post-Cold War world, with Russia feeling particularly vulnerable following the collapse of the Soviet Union and China relatively isolated after Tiananmen Square, was a major factor in the signing of a strategic partnership agreement between the two countries in 1998. [1111]

Nonetheless, there must be severe doubts as to the strategic potential of their relationship. The underlying problem is Russia ’s sense of weakness, on the one hand, and China ’s growing strength, on the other. Although the rapprochement had much to do with Russia ’s sense of vulnerability following the collapse of the Soviet Union and its desire to make peace with its neighbours, that frailty also left it feeling insecure and suspicious of China. The most obvious expression of this anxiety is to be found in the Russian Far East, where a population of a mere 7.5 million confronts a population of 112 million in the three provinces of China’s north-east. Now that the border has been made porous, numerous Chinese have crossed into Russia to seek work and ply their trade. In 1994 Russian estimates put the number of Chinese residents in Russia ’s Far East at 1 million, compared with a Chinese estimate of less than 2,000. According to some demographic projections, Chinese could be the second largest minority ethnic group in the Russian Federation by 2051. Exacerbating these fears is the demographic crisis facing Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with one estimate suggesting that its population will fall by 3 million between 2000 and 2010 to 142 million. [1112] The Russian fear of being overrun by Chinese immigration speaks both of old prejudices and new fears. The size of the Chinese population tends to arouse these anxieties elsewhere, but they are compounded in Russia ’s case by a long history of prejudice and conflict, the huge demographic imbalance between the two countries, and their long border.