Red Storm Rising

"You have served in uniform, Comrade Minister. On the field of battle there are no certainties. The measure of an army is not known until it has been blooded. Ours has not. We have done everything we know how to do to make our Army ready-"

"You said you wished for two more months," Sergetov noted.

"A task like this is never truly finished. There are always improvements that need to be made. Only a month ago we initiated a program of replacing some senior officers at battalion and regimental level with younger, more vigorous subordinates. It is working very well indeed, but a number of these young captains now in majors' jobs could do with some further seasoning."

"So, you still have doubts?"

"There are always doubts, Comrade Minister. Fighting a war is not an exercise in mathematics. We deal with people, not numbers. Numbers have their own special kind of perfection. People remain people no matter what we try to do with them."

"That is good, Pavel Leonidovich. That is very good. I have found an honest man." Sergetov toasted the General with his tea. "I asked to come here. A comrade on the Politburo, Pyotr Bromkovskiy, told me of your father."

"Uncle Petya?" Alekseyev nodded. "He was commissar with my father's division on the drive to Vienna. He often visited our home when I was young. He is well?"

"No, he is old and sick. He says that the attack on the West is madness. The ramblings of an old man, perhaps, but his war record is distinguished, and because of that I want your evaluation of our chances. I will not inform on you, General. Too many people are fearful of telling us-we of the Politburo-the truth. But this is a time for that truth. I need your professional opinion. If I can trust you to give it to me, you can trust me not to harm you for it." The entreaty ended as a harsh command.

Alekseyev looked his guest hard in the eyes. The charm was gone now. The blue was the color of ice. There was danger here, danger even for a general officer, but what the man had said was true.

"Comrade, we plan on a rapid campaign. The projections are that we can reach the Rhein in two weeks. Those are actually more conservative than our plans of only five years ago. NATO has improved its readiness, particularly its antitank capabilities. I would say three weeks is more realistic, depending on the degree of tactical surprise and the many imponderables present in war."

"So the key is surprise?"

"The key is always surprise," Alekseyev answered at once. He quoted Soviet doctrine exactly. "Surprise is the greatest factor in war. There are two kinds, tactical and strategic. Tactical surprise is an operational art. A killed unit commander can generally achieve it. Strategic surprise is attained on the political level. That is your mission, not mine, and it is far more important than anything we in the Army can do. With true strategic surprise, if our maskirovka works, yes, we will almost certainly win on the battlefield."

"And if not?"

Then we have murdered eight children for nothing, Alekseyev thought. And what part did this charming fellow have in that? "Then we might fail. Can you answer me a question? Can we split NATO politically?"

Sergetov shrugged, annoyed at being caught in one of his own traps. "As you said, Pavel Leonidovich, there are many imponderables. If it fails, then what?"

"Then the war will become a test of will and a test of reserves. We should win. It is far easier for us to reinforce our troops. We have more trained troops, more tanks, more aircraft close to the zone of action than do the NATO powers."

"And America?"

"America is on the far side of the Atlantic Ocean. We have a plan for closing the Atlantic. They can fly troops to Europe-but only troops, not their weapons, not their fuel. Those require ships, and ships are easier to sink than it is to destroy a fighting division. If full surprise is not achieved, that operational area will become quite important."

"And what of NATO surprises?"

The General leaned back. "By definition you cannot predict surprises, Comrade. That is why we have the intelligence organs, to reduce or even eliminate them. That is why our plans allow for a number of contingencies. For example, what if surprise is totally lost and NATO attacks first?" He shrugged. "They would not go far, but they would upset things. What still concerns me are nuclear responses. Again, more of a political question."

"Yes." Sergetov's worry was for his elder son. When the reserves were mobilized, Ivan would climb back into his tank, and he didn't need to be a Politburo member to know where that tank would be sent. Alekseyev had only daughters. Lucky man, Sergetov thought. "So, this unit goes to Germany?"

"The end of the week."

"And you?"