Столкновение цивилизаций

23. См. R. H. Shultz and W. J. Olson, Ethnic and Religious Conflict, p. 3–9; Sugata Bose, «Factors Causing the Proliferation of Ethnic and Religious Conflict», R. L. Pfaltzgraff and R. H. Shultz, Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability, p. 43–49; Michael E. Brown, «Causes and Implications of Ethnic Conflict», Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), p. 3–26. О контраргументе, что этнический конфликт не усиливался после окончания холодной войны, см. T. N. Thomas, «Global Assessment of Current and Future Trends in Ethnic and Religious Conflict», p. 33–41.

24. Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military and Social Expenditures 1993 (Washington, D. C.: World Priorities, Inc., 1993), p. 20–22.

25. James L. Payne, Why Nations Arm (Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1989), p. 124.

26. Christopher B. Stone, «Westphalia and Hudaybiyya: A Survey of Islamic Perspectives on the Use of Force as Conflict Management Technique» (unpublished paper, Harvard University), p. 27–31, и Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Michael Brecher, and Sheila Moser, eds., Crises in the Twentieth Century (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988–89), II, 15,161.

27. Gary Fuller, «The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview», в Central Intelligence Agency, The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990’s: Geographic Perspectives (Washington, D. C.: Central Intelligence Agency, RTT 95–10039, October 1995), p. 151–154.

28. New York Times, 16 October 1994, p. 3; Economist, 5 August 1995, p. 32.

29. United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (New York: United Nations, 1995), p. 29, 51; Denis Dragounski, «Threshold of Violence», Freedom Review, 26 (March-April 1995), 11.

30. Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), p. 32–35; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking the Breakup 1980–92 (London: Verso, 1993), p. 6, 19.

31. Paul Mojzes, Yugoslavian Inferno: Ethnoreligious Warfare in the Balkans (New York: Continuum, 1994), p. 95–96; B. Magas, Destruction of Yugoslavia, p. 49–73; Aryeh Neier, «Kosovo Survives», New York Review of Books, 3 February 1994, p. 26.

32. Aleksa Djilas, «A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic», Foreign Affairs, 72 (Summer 1993), 83.

33. S. Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, p. 33–35, цифры взяты из результатов переписи населения Югославии и из прочих источников; William T. Johnsen, Deciphering the Balkan Enigma: Using History to Inform Policy (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, 1993), p. 25, цит. Washingfon Posf, 6 December 1992, p. C2; New York Times, 4 November 1995, p. 6.

34. Bogdan Denis Denitch, Ethnic Nationalism: The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994), p. 108–109.

35. J. L. Payne, Why Nations Arm, p. 125, 127.

36. Middle East International, 20 January, 1995, p. 2.

Глава 11

1. Roy Licklider, «The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–93», American Political Science Review, 89 (September 1995), 685.

2. См. Barry R. Posen, «The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict», Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), p. 103–124.

3. Roland Dannreuther, Creating New States in Central Asia (International Institute for Strategic Studies/Brassey’s, Adelphi Paper No. 288, March 1994), p. 30–31; Dodjoni Atovullo, цит. Urzula Doroszewska, «The Forgotten War: What Really Happened in Tajikistan», Uncaptive Minds, 6 (Fall 1993), 33.

4. Economist, 26 August 1995, p. 43; 20 January 1996, p. 21.

5. Boston Globe, 8 November 1993, p. 2; Brian Murray, «Peace in the Caucasus: Multi-Ethnic Stability in Dagestan», Central Asian Survey, 13 (No. 4, 1994), 514–515; New York Times, 11 November 1991, p. A7; 17 December 1994, p. 7; Boston Globe, 7 September 1994, p. 16; 17 December 1994, p. Iff.