The Third World War: August 1985

This nuclear exchange, carried out on the Soviet side with no pretence of consultation with their subject allies let alone with the regional republics of the USSR, proved to be the trigger which set off the smouldering nationalist explosion. The growth of disaffection and resistance in Asia and in Eastern Europe has already been described. Its causes were the check to Soviet arms in Europe and elsewhere; the fundamental contradiction in the Soviet system as a revolutionary empire — forcing its own subject nations to fight wars of national liberation in Africa while denying them national freedom at home; offers of external help, from China to the Central Asians and from the West to the European satellites; now finally the realization that Russia might well have initiated a nuclear war which could engulf them all unless they immediately separated themselves from Russian control. The outbreaks were quicker and more violent in the East, more subtle but more decisive in Europe.

The Council of Ministers of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic started the ball rolling by securing the adoption by their local Supreme Soviet of a proclamation of secession from the Soviet Union and of independence and non-commitment. The new regime was at once recognized by China, who instituted large-scale military manoeuvres on the frontier. The Soviet commander at Alma Ata prepared to attack the Supreme Soviet building, now guarded by the local police and militia, but, being unaccustomed to taking local initiatives, asked Moscow for instructions and authority. The Kremlin, plunged into preparations for nuclear war and still torn by internal disagreement, was too busy to reply, and the tactical moment was lost. Enthusiastic crowds filled the streets carrying banners proclaiming their friendship for the Russian people and calling on the Russian troops to return peacefully to their own country. The Chinese threat appeared even more dangerous than the local ‘disturbance’, and the general took himself and most of his garrison off to reinforce the frontiers.

Proclamations of independence were equally successful in other republics which bordered on Chinese or Iranian territory and where military activity on the frontier diverted Soviet troops from their internal security role. In the Uzbek republic, which did not have this advantage, however, the Soviet forces in Tashkent took bloody reprisals against the nationalist leaders and temporarily halted the independence movement. They might in the end have been able to re-establish the situation in other territories, but meanwhile there was more serious trouble in the West which finally gave the coup de grace to the crumbling edifice of Soviet rule.

The annihilation of Minsk also precipitated events on the western borders of the Soviet Union. It was a well-chosen target, close to Poland on the west, capital of the theoretically autonomous republic of Byelorussia, and Ukraine’s neighbour on the north. Both Poland and Ukraine were quick to draw the necessary conclusion that it could be their turn next unless they took steps to change the course of history. In preparation for such an occasion the Polish defence authorities, still able to call on great signals expertise such as the Enigma disclosures had revealed, had secretly arranged direct links to their commanders, separate from the Soviet-controlled Warsaw Pact network. They now activated these links and instructed all Polish units to stand firm in their positions and resist any, repeat any, other orders to move and any attack on their positions, from whatever quarter. At the same time they made contact with the underground (in typical Polish fashion the authorities and the underground had known perfectly well how to get in touch with each other for some time past) and arranged for them to send urgent messages on their clandestine radio to London, reporting what had been done, asking for confirmation that no Allied attack would be made on Polish positions, and requesting air drops of supplies of essential foodstuffs and communications equipment. A positive and encouraging reply was received and the Polish government quietly prepared a declaration of withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact and the isolation of Russian units still on Polish territory.