The Third World War: August 1985

One of the most important functions of government is the organization of military preparedness and defence. Much of this should be organized on a continental scale. The new Europe felt reasonably confident that it could avoid internal tribal wars. But it regarded the chaos emerging on its southern boundaries with sickened alarm.

The two most worried reflections at Copenhagen were: ‘the world is now divided into three parts, and the EEC is perched on top of the wildest south’; and ‘unfortunately, the earth is round’.

Many people expect the China-Japan co-prosperity sphere (including Australasia) to be the future centre of the world. Japan is rapidly becoming the most advanced country technologically. China has the largest literate labour force, and as this is still relatively underpaid in comparison with its ability and entrepreneurial drive it therefore has the fastest early capacity for growth. Australia and the islands to its north will be among the pleasantest places in which to live during the telecommuting age. No part of this area was invaded in the Third World War, though a great many Australians and New Zealanders fought as volunteers on the Allied side and in Southern Africa, and many more were on their way to Europe when the few weeks of full hostilities came to an end. The parts of the China-Japan co-prosperity area that may still be ravaged by coups d’état and urban guerrilladom (Indonesia? Thailand?) are relatively small, and should prove controllable — especially (and this is worrying) as Japan and China may be more willing than others to ‘cure’ or ‘control’ violent individuals with personality-changing tranquillizing drugs.

The second main area of the world is the Americas. North America was undamaged by the Third World War just as it had been by the First and Second. The main economic effect of war and post-war reconstruction has been (as in 1941-45) to restore it to full employment. South America has prospered, and communism has been overthrown in the Caribbean. It is about as popular to advocate Soviet-style communism in the Caribbean (including Cuba and Jamaica) in these late 1980s as it was to advocate Nazism in continental Europe in the late 1940s. For a time, at least, urban guerrilladom in the Americas is likely to be on the decline.

The problem area is the territory to the south of the new EEC. On the western side of its long southern border, Africa has become a dumping ground for every sort of surplus military weapon used in the late war; its tribal hatreds are still seething; it may be entering a new dark age. Perched on its southern rim are the triumphant white homelands of South Africa. During the years 1988–2013 they may feel as self-confident after military success as Israel did in 1948 and 1967, offering some of the same attractions but posing some of the same problems.

China-Japan is likely to co-operate with Australasia to its south, in order to help bring humane and sensible telecommuter-era government to the troubled areas between them. Some of their joint methods of neo-gunboat diplomacy will be called neo-colonialism; but as they will be a multi-racial partnership they will get away with a lot. North America may co-operate similarly with Brazil, to create its own north-south axis and an area of prosperity between them.

There will be a school of thought that thinks that the new EEC should ally itself with white South Africa, as China-Japan with Australia, and the United States with Brazil. But the EEC might then find that it had made racial problems in its ‘wild south’ even more likely to bring riot upon itself.

At the eastern end of Europe’s southern border, none of the problems of the Middle East has been resolved. An EEC’s southeastern border would lie on the Caspian Sea, including a short land frontier with triumphant Iran.

As Iran has been on the winning side, it may have temptations to extend a new Persian empire across Arabia. There will be fierce resistance if this is attempted. This uncovers two other problems: first, the fact that Iran is now the cockpit between the China-Japan and EEC spheres of interest; second, the question of how long Middle Eastern oil is likely to remain important.