United Kingdom

On September 18, 2014, a referendum was held in Scotland on independence from the United Kingdom. The referendum, which had been agreed to by Cameron in 2012, asked a single simple question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Vigorous campaigns had been conducted on both sides of the question, with former prime minister Brown playing a prominent role in opposition to the referendum and proposing a plan that called for codification of the purpose of the United Kingdom, for recognition of the Scottish Parliament as permanent and indissoluble, and for increased income taxing powers for the Scottish government. Although opinion polls had long indicated that a solid majority of Scots opposed independence, as the day of voting approached, the “yes” side had gained tremendous momentum, and polling indicated that the outcome was very much in question, with the “no” side holding a slight edge. With the vote just days off, Cameron, Clegg, and Labour Party leader Ed Miliband had jointly published in the newspaper Daily Record a “vow” to increase powers for Scotland’s government if the referendum was rejected. On the day of the vote, some 85 percent of registered voters went to the polls and convincingly defeated the referendum, with about 55 percent voting “no” and about 45 percent voting “yes.” Following the result, Cameron promised to move swiftly to redeem his promise to devolve more powers to Scotland. He appointed an all-party commission, led by Lord Smith of Kelvin, to consider the details.

Economic recovery

The U.K.’s economy grew by about 3 percent in 2014. By the end of the year, it had reversed the decline that it suffered during the recession that started in 2008. Unemployment, which had peaked at 8.5 percent in 2011, fell to 6 percent in the second half of 2014. However, wages continued to rise more slowly than inflation. The combination of low pay raises and the expansion of low-wage jobs meant that tax revenues during the year were lower than expected. That shortfall contributed to a rise in the government’s net deficit, which toward the end of 2014 was running about 10 percent higher than during the same period a year earlier.

On September 26, 2014, MPs voted 524–43 to approve British participation in the U.S.-led air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also called ISIS) insurgents in Iraq. Cameron made clear that the action would be limited to Iraq and that Britain would not attack ISIL in Syria. Further, he emphasized that Britain would not send troops to take part in a ground war.

David Cameron on his own (2015–16)

The U.K. general election of 2015

Opinion polling right up to the day before voting indicated that the May 2015 U.K. general election might be the closest in recent memory, as a single percentage point separated the Conservative and Labour parties in most polls. Immigration, the government’s austerity policies, the future of the National Health Service, and Britain’s continued membership in the EU were among the key issues in the campaign. Attempting to address Euroskeptics in his own party and the challenge of UKIP, Cameron promised to renegotiate the terms of British participation in the EU and to put continued EU membership to a national referendum by the end of 2017 if he were reelected. The Conservatives also intimated that if Labour were to win with less than a majority, it would likely form a coalition with the Scottish National Party (SNP) that would drive the government’s agenda with its desire for independence.

When the votes were counted, Cameron and the Conservatives defied the pollsters by capturing 331 seats (a gain of 24 over their showing in 2010), enough to form a majority government without the participation of the Liberal Democrats, whose fortunes plummeted as their party’s representation fell from 57 seats to 8, prompting Clegg’s resignation. Labour leader Miliband stepped down too, after his party won only 232 seats (down 26 from 2010), and watched the SNP blow away Labour’s traditional dominance of elections in Scotland for the U.K. Parliament by increasing its representation in Westminster from 6 seats to 56. Although it captured some 13 percent of the total vote, UKIP won only one seat—a consequence of Britain’s winner-take-all election rules—and Farage, who failed to be elected in his constituency, joined the list of resigning party leaders.

The “Brexit” referendum

On December 2, 2015, in the wake of the attacks by Islamist terrorists in Paris on November 13, the House of Commons authorized air strikes by the British military on ISIL targets in Syria. The vote on the measure came after some 10 hours of debate. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn freed members of his party to vote their conscience, and dozens of them broke ranks to join the Conservatives and others in voting for authorization, which passed 397–223.