War with Russia

MacWhite let the Int briefer run through a series of PowerPoint slides: the latest positions of the Russian Baltic Fleet at sea; Russian troop dispositions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, calculated at upward of 200,000 men and climbing; estimated strengths of the Forest Brothers—initially some thousands, but already rumored to be climbing toward their 1950s apogee of about 50,000 men and women under arms, including many Russian speakers who had remained loyal to the Baltics and had been outraged by this assault on their much-prized freedom—and the latest digest of attacks against their Russian occupiers. This was followed by an analysis of Russian strength levels in Ukraine and Kaliningrad. For once, the Middle East was relegated to another meeting.

Briefing concluded, MacWhite leaned forward, elbows on the table, a thoughtful frown chiseling deep lines on his leathery, sunken cheeks. “Ma’am, we’re getting a strong sense that the Russians have bitten off far more than they can chew in the Baltic states. The people are responding magnificently and, by God, are refusing to roll over. Thousands, maybe even tens of thousands, have taken to the forests to pursue the fight and the Russians are having ever more problems each day that passes. So it’s interesting that we’ve picked up they may be on the point of thinning out in Kaliningrad, that’s the little Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Their Iskander nuclear armed missiles are there in force, but recent signal traffic plus a lot of vehicle movement from Kaliningrad into Lithuania that we’re seeing on satellite imagery, all indicates that something odd is happening there. The only conclusion we can draw is that they’re getting well and truly pulled in by the Baltic insurgency and they need reinforcements fast, if they are to stamp it out before it gets out of control. It’s what I would do if I was the Russian commander: concentrate resources on the main effort while accepting risk elsewhere.”

“What can we do to support the insurgents?” asked Dillon.

“Simple, ma’am—weapons, equipment, training. We’re preparing to insert liaison detachments of Special Operations Forces from European Command to coordinate support. With your permission, of course.”

“I’m happy with that,” replied Dillon crisply. “Now, tell me what you think of the British idea of getting onto the offensive with an attack on Kaliningrad?”

MacWhite was cautious, the hallmark of a veteran with vast combat experience who knew that once embarked upon, war frequently developed a dynamic of its own; difficult to foresee, impossible to control.

“It’s an interesting idea, ma’am. I gather the idea originated with SACEUR and his Brit deputy, a punchy so-and-so, I gather… a Marine,” he added approvingly. “I gather the idea is that we snatch Kaliningrad and then offer it back to the Russians on the condition they get out of the Baltics?”

Dillon nodded. “Correct.”

“OK, then I’ll need to get the staff to look at the proposition in detail. We’d need to pull together the right force mix and set the political conditions with the NATO members if it is to have any chance of success… and it’s a big ask for NATO to mount an offensive operation. But, no doubt about it, if we could pull it off, it would certainly unhinge the Russians strategically. It’s the last thing they’d expect. But there are a couple of very important factors we need to consider. First, trying to evict the Russians from the Baltic states means taking them on where they are strongest. So, at first glance, that argues for a more indirect approach. But, if they’re thinning out the Kaliningrad garrison, then that is definitely in our favor. The second issue, and by far my biggest concern, is that the Russian President has made it very clear that any attack on the Baltics, or on the soil of Russia, will result in the use of nuclear weapons. No ifs, no buts. And I for one believe him. Those Iskander nuclear missile batteries in Kaliningrad are within range of Berlin, Copenhagen and Warsaw. Which, of course, is exactly why they are there.”

He paused. “That means we have to be clever. I’m hoping the National Security Agency will tell us that they can come up with something very clever on the cyber front—if they haven’t done so already. Any cyber solution will need to cover all command and control systems, not just nuclear. Furthermore, it will need to be something they know will work. The consequences of calling this wrong when we are facing a nuclear response are beyond my imagination.”

“You take that up with them and I’ll set the political conditions,” replied Dillon. “But what are we going to need in the way of forces? What can we provide and what can our allies offer?”

“Ma’am, we’re talking about one of the most heavily militarized regions of Europe here.”

In the short time he’d had to consider this idea before the meeting, Bear had pulled some figures off the Pentagon Intelligence website and handed them to MacWhite, who started reading them out.