War with Russia

“At full strength, and accepting that they might be thinning out, we estimate the Russians have got up to fourteen thousand troops in Kaliningrad, broken down into three fighting brigades, plus artillery, missiles and helicopters. Hardware-wise that works out at over eight hundred main battle tanks, twelve hundred other armored vehicles and over three hundred artillery or rocket systems. That’s a hell of a lot of hardware in a fairly small area. So, this can only work if the Russians significantly reduce those numbers to reinforce the Baltics.”

Dillon was silent as the scale of the Russian troops in Fortress Kaliningrad sunk in.

MacWhite added, “We’d need at least a three-to-one advantage. So, assuming that large numbers of Russians are diverted to the Baltics, that takes us to an attack force of around fifty thousand, a minimum of a corps operation… With some serious anti-armor capability as a starter.”

“Where are they going to come from?” asked Dillon.

“Well, ma’am, following your decision to reduce notice to move on the eighteenth of May, 18th Airborne Corps is pretty much ready to move. The two airborne divisions, 82nd and 101st Air Assault are good to go, while the Global Response Force from 82nd has been in UK since we had to turn it back from landing in Latvia. We also took the precaution of starting to ship the two armored brigades of 4th Infantry Division to Europe. They should be docking in Bremerhaven in the next few days. They’ll link up with the two brigades we’ve moved to Germany, so that will give us a useful combined arms force with plenty of armored clout.

“On top of that, we’ve got 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force out of Camp Lejeune, North Carolina embarked and moving across the Atlantic. Put alongside 18th Airborne Corps that becomes a punchy organization, with all the amphibious capability needed to disembark a strong force. As for maritime, we’ve got 6th Fleet moving up through the Mediterranean at best speed right now and more ships on their way across the Atlantic from Norfolk, Virginia to reinforce them. Air—all we need is in Europe already. So, depending on what the allies can produce, we’ve got the means to do what needs to be done to take down the Russians.”

He got no further as the President lifted up her hand. “Whoa, General… You’ve lost me with all this detail. Take me through all that, one bit at a time.”

MacWhite grinned. “Forgive me, ma’am. I guess my enthusiasm got the better of me. Sure. Bear… ?” and he looked across at Bear, sitting in the cheap seats behind the Situation Room conference table. “Run the President through the slides you prepared for me before the meeting, will you.”

Bear systematically went through the make-up of the force, slide by slide. Dillon listened carefully, making occasional notes on a hard copy of the slides. She asked a number of perceptive questions of MacWhite and then looked at Bear.

“Thanks for that, Colonel… Excellent briefing. Now let me be sure I’ve got the troop numbers right.” She checked her notes and ran through the list she had made. “That’s around forty thousand for the 82nd and 101st Divisions. As well as that there’s the 4th Infantry Division with two brigades, plus the two brigades in Germany, which amounts to close to thirty thousand. Then you mentioned the Marine Expeditionary Force, which you said had a division, an aircraft wing and a logistics group—all amounting to about twenty thousand personnel.” Dillon paused while she totted up the figures. “I make that ninety thousand.”

While Bear was impressed at President Dillon’s readiness to get stuck into the detail, he was slightly surprised at her fixation on numbers. A legacy of being a CEO he supposed, where the bottom line was paramount.

Then she turned to MacWhite, “You said that the usual military planning figure for an offensive operation is three to one, so I can see we’ve got the force levels and, no doubt, the equipment which goes with it. But the challenge will be the execution, I guess?”

MacWhite nodded. “We can deploy the manpower but we’re going to have to outsmart the Russians at their own game. What we’ve shown you is the conventional capability that we can deliver. And assuming our allies can pull something together to fight alongside us, that’s a powerful force by any standards. However, the key to success, and the only way we’ll beat the Russians, will be by being cleverer than them. We have to neutralize their strength with our unconventional capability. And SOF, sorry, ma’am, that’s Special Operations Forces, are going to be the key here. I’d rather do that off line with you, if you don’t mind.”